Information Network Flows and Social and Economic Outcomes: Models, Prediction, and Regulation

该研究项目分为三个部分，考察信息流的结构和动态以及促进和修改这些过程的信息技术如何影响个人和组织的生产力、绩效以及更广泛的行为。首先，这项研究将绘制真实组织中的信息流随时间的变化，并将生产经济学理论与社会网络理论相结合，以评估信息传播对个人和组织的绩效和生产率的影响。第二，该项目将利用与真实组织和在线社交网络有关的若干数据集，开发大规模联网环境中信息传播和行为的一般模型。第三，这项研究将开发改进或以其他方式规范信息网络的方法。这项工作将促进有关信息工作者生产的经济学理论、与组织中的资源配置方法有关的运筹学理论、关于社会网络中信息传播的社会学理论、大规模环境中的间接机制设计，以及对信息网络中的结果进行建模和预测的统计学方法。该项目的中心目标是：1)估计和提高信息工作者的生产力；2)模拟、衡量和改进组织业绩和我们预测组织行为的能力；3)改进信息网络环境中与业绩有关的干预战略。拟议的活动旨在对科学、工程、教育和社会产生广泛影响。我们对信息工作者生产率的理解对经济增长越来越重要。在从组织设计到流行病学再到病毒营销的各个领域，制定强有力的、实用的干预战略来规范联网系统的行为是很重要的。该项目对组织绩效建模和预测的重点将对如何组织企业以及如何在企业内部分配资源产生重要影响。

This research project is a three-part program that examines how the structure and dynamic of information flows-as well as the information technologies that facilitate and modify these processes-impact the productivity, performance, and more broadly, the behaviour, of individuals and organizations. First, the research will map the flow of information in real organizations over time and will combine economic theories of production with social network theory to estimate the effects of information propagation on the performance and productivity of individuals and organizations. Second, the project will develop general models of information diffusion and of behaviour in large-scale networked settings using a number of data sets relating to real organizations as well as online social networks. Third, the research will develop methods for improving or otherwise regulating information networks. This work will advance economic theory about information worker production, operations theory relating to resource allocation methods in organizations, sociological theory concerning the propagation of information in social networks, indirect mechanism design in large-scale environments, and statistical methods to model and forecast outcomes in information networks. The central goals of the project are: 1) to estimate and enhance the productivity of information workers, 2) to model, measure and improve organizational performance and our ability to forecast organizational behaviours, and 3) to improve performance-related intervention strategies in information-networked environments. The proposed activities are designed to have broad impact for science, engineering, education, and society. Our understanding of information worker productivity is increasingly paramount to economic growth. Developing robust, practical intervention strategies for regulating the behaviour of networked systems is important in domains ranging from organizational design to epidemiology to viral marketing. The project's emphasis on modeling and forecasting organizational performance will have important implications for how enterprises are organized and how resources within them are allocated.