Developing econometric models to examine activity based model elements: residential location and vehicle ownership, mode choice and physical activity participation

交通研究人员已经转向基于行为分解的活动框架来分析出行行为。基于活动的建模框架试图用一种更行为的方法来取代传统的基于出行的模型框架中的统计旅行预测重点，该方法明确地认识到活动参与作为旅行的前兆的基本作用。制定和发展以活动为基础的框架需要认识到社会人口统计、活动旅行行为和土地使用交通网络是相互关联的。出于这个原因，交通界越来越有兴趣为出行行为建模开发基于活动的集成框架。目前的研究提案通过审查基于活动的综合框架的具体内容，同时为制定蒙特利尔城市区域基于活动的模式编写“蓝图”，对现有关于基于活动的框架的文献作出了贡献。具体地说，该建议包括以下研究任务：(1)调查住宅自我选择对家庭车辆拥有决策的影响；(2)考察基于互联网的新兴技术背景下的出行方式选择行为；(3)分析身体活动参与情况；(4)为蒙特利尔地区基于活动的综合模型开发概念框架。研究建议的期限为五年，研究团队由本科生和研究生组成，他们将在研究项目的实施过程中获益良多。研究建议中提出的研究任务需要在旅行需求建模、调查设计、数据挖掘、计量经济学和软件编程等领域具有高度的跨学科知识。此外，团队成员将通过参加各种会议和与交通运输领域的其他知名研究人员合作，接触到交通运输和计量经济学领域的世界级研究成果。

Transportation researchers have shifted towards a disaggregate behavior oriented activity based framework to analyze travel behavior. The activity based modeling framework attempts to replace the statistical travel prediction focus of the traditional trip based model framework with a more behavioral approach that explicitly recognizes the fundamental role of activity participation as a precursor to travel. The formulation and development of activity based frameworks requires recognition that socio-demographics, activity travel behavior, and land-use transportation networks are interconnected. For this reason, there has been growing interest within the transportation community to develop integrated activity based frameworks for travel behavior modeling. The current research proposal contributes to the existing literature on integrated activity based frameworks by examining specific elements of an integrated activity based framework while simultaneously preparing a "blue print" for the development of an activity based model for Montreal urban region. Specifically, the proposal includes the following research tasks: (1) investigate the influence of residential self-selection on household vehicle ownership decisions (2) examine travel mode choice behavior in the context of emerging internet based technologies, (3) analyze physical activity participation and (4) develop a conceptual framework for an integrated activity based model for Montreal region. The research proposal is intended to span a period of five years with research team of undergraduate and graduate students who will gain considerably during the course of the implementation of the research project. The research tasks presented in the research proposal require a high level of inter-disciplinary knowledge in the fields of travel demand modeling, survey design, data mining, econometrics, and software programming. Further, the team members will gain from exposure to world class research in the field of transportation and econometrics by attending various conferences and collaborating with other prominent researchers in transportation.