FORWARD III: Modelling to contribute to cumulative effects management in the Canadian Boreal Forest

我们建议将基于分水岭的研究与加拿大北方森林的石油和林业产业直接联系起来。我们将通过复垦土壤、植被、溪流和生物指标来量化和模拟景观尺度扰动和恢复轨迹的影响。我们将测试这样一种假设，即这些分水岭变量在油砂地点的恢复轨迹与在协作奖获奖前进计划期间监测的烧毁和实验性收获的分水岭的恢复轨迹相同，该计划开发了一个供29个参考的长期数据库，并扰乱了北方平原和北方盾牌分水岭。设计包括15条这样的长期分水岭，包括参考和干扰地点以及油砂填海处理。水文和水质模型将完善和扩展在FORWARD中开发的模型，以包括预测从开垦和收获的集水区以及纸浆厂进入阿萨巴斯卡河下游系统的有机化学品负荷。对这一主要污染源的定义将提供一个机会，以模拟有机污染物的迁移、去向和下游累积影响，并确定其对水生无脊椎动物、鱼类和两栖动物的毒性。水文和水质模拟工具对于可持续管理艾伯塔省和整个加拿大的人类干扰和填海成果至关重要，在这些地区，不同强度的资源开采会改变鱼类、野生动物和下游用水用户的污染物负荷和暴露。自然资源部门工业参与者之间的协作影响和复垦研究与合作将加强累积影响评估，并促进流域功能和生物资源的成功恢复。这项研究的目标是一些影响工业应用、规划和监管的成果，并将提供应对这些行业挑战所需的高素质人员。

We propose to directly link watershed-based research to the petroleum and forestry industries operating in the Canadian Boreal Forest. We will quantify and model the impacts of landscape-scale disturbances and recovery trajectories through reclamation of soils, vegetation, streams and bioindicators. We will test the hypothesis that recovery trajectories for these watershed variables at oil sands sites parallel those seen for burned and experimentally harvested watersheds monitored during the Synergy Award winning FORWARD program, which developed a long-term database for 29 reference and disturbed Boreal Plain and Boreal Shield watersheds. The design, including 15 of these long term watersheds, consists of reference and disturbance sites and oil sands reclamation treatments. Hydrologic and water quality modeling will complete and extend the models developed in FORWARD to include prediction of organic chemical loading into the Lower Athabasca River system from reclaimed and harvested watersheds, as well as from pulp mills. Definition of this primary loading source will provide an opportunity to model the transport, fate and thus cumulative downstream impact of organic contaminants, and to determined their toxicity to aquatic invertebrates, fish and amphibians. The hydrologic and water quality modeling tools will be essential to sustainable management of human disturbance and reclamation outcomes in Alberta and throughout Canada, where various intensities of resource extraction alter contaminant loading and exposure for fish, wildlife and downstream water users. Collaborative impact and reclamation research and cooperation between industrial participants in the natural resource sector will enhance cumulative effects assessment and facilitate successful recovery of watershed functions and biotic resources. This research targets a number of outcomes impacting industrial application, planning and regulation and will provide the high quality personnel required to meet the challenges of these industries.