Quantifying and mapping the impacts of climate change on the productivity of Eastern Canadian forests

该项目的总体目标是开发一套森林动态模型，供自然资源管理人员使用，以便更好地了解(1)与气候变化有关的不同不确定性，(2)目前的土地利用做法如何影响温带生物群和北方生物群之间过渡森林的多样性和功能。目前用于预测其对森林生态系统影响的工具有限，因为它们缺乏重要的生态学知识。一方面，林农使用为不同地区和气候参数化的生长和产量曲线来预测未来的生产力。另一方面，对未来物种分布的预测使用了当前分布与气候描述符之间的相关性。这些模型不适合于森林生态系统，因为它们没有考虑到分散、种间相互作用和森林管理之间的复杂相互作用将如何影响迁徙动态和生产力。该项目将加拿大和美国最优秀的森林生态学家和模型师联系起来，评估气候变化对加拿大东部森林生产力的影响和相关风险，这一点是独一无二的。我们将开发一套跨越不同时空尺度的建模套件，从局部尺度和短时间视界(10-25年)到大(区域)空间尺度和长时间视界(100-200年)。更具体地说，该项目包括以下主要技术任务：(1)发展气候变化下的森林生态系统动力学理论及其与森林管理的相互作用；(2)开发气候驱动的邻里竞争模式，绘制气候变化对森林生产力的短期影响图；(3)开发森林动态模拟套件，绘制气候变化对森林生产力的长期影响图；(4)实际应用模拟工具，以制定不同森林管理准则的创新管理战略建议。由于我们预计气候变化的最大影响将发生在这些森林中，我们将把重点放在温带生物群和北方生物群之间的过渡时期的加拿大东部森林。

The general objective of this project is to develop a suite of forest dynamic models that will be used by natural resources managers to better understand (i) the different uncertainties associated with climate change and (ii) how current land-use practices can affect the diversity and functioning of the transitional forest between the temperate and boreal biomes. The current tools that are used to predict its impact on forest ecosystems are limited because they lack important ecological knowledge. On the one hand, foresters use growth and yield curves parameterized for different regions and climate to project future productivity. On the other hand, the predictions of future species distribution use the correlation between the current distribution and climate descriptors. These models are inappropriate for forest ecosystems because they do not consider how the complex interplay between dispersal, interspecific interactions and forest management will affect migration dynamics and productivity. This project is unique in linking the best forest ecologists and modelers from Canada and United States to assess the impact of and the risks associated with climate change on the productivity of the forests of eastern Canada. We will develop a modeling suite spanning different spatial and temporal scales, from local scales and short time horizons (10-25 years) to the large (regional) spatial scales and long time horizons (100-200 years). More specifically, the project includes the following major technical tasks: (1) Development of a theory of forest ecosystem dynamics under climate change and of its interplay with forest management; (2) Development of climate-driven neighborhood competition models and mapping of the short term impacts of climate change on forest productivity; (3) Development of the forest dynamics modeling suite and mapping of the long-term impacts of climate change on forest productivity; (4) Practical application of the modeling tools for the development of innovative management strategies proposition of different forest management guidelines. We will focus on forest Eastern Canada at the transition between temperate and boreal biomes since we expect the greatest impacts of climate change to occur in such forests.