Theoretical and experimental integration of biogeography and ecosystem ecology

我的研究计划的长期目标是将生物地理学和生物多样性-生态系统功能的学科整合到一个连贯的理论框架中，以更好地了解全球变化对生态系统的影响。在过去15年中，生物地理学在预测全球变化对范围变化、灭绝风险和生物多样性未来分布的影响方面取得了令人印象深刻的进展。然而，这些研究忽视了生物相互作用的影响，从而忽视了如何从种群到生态系统的规模。这一综合将有助于回答生物多样性将在哪里、何时和为什么发生变化，以及这些变化对生态系统服务的提供有什么影响。我将在我之前关于营养元群落和生物多样性关系的工作的基础上，开发新的模型，并对它们的预测进行实证调查。这项研究项目的中心假设是，相互作用的生态网络结构决定了生态系统的功能。我预测，在全球变化之后，群落可能会经历相当大的物种更替，但如果保持相互作用的结构，其功能将得到保留。我将结合数学模型和猪笼草微生物食物网作为模型实验系统，以实现以下具体目标：i)开发一个整合了生物地理、群落和生态系统生态要素的模型，以更好地预测全球变化对群落结构和生态系统功能的影响；ii)研究异质环境中复杂生态网络的空间结构，iii)了解这种结构如何影响功能，以及iv)这种空间异质性如何在变化的环境中提供进化保障。实证和理论方法的激动人心的结合定义了这一研究计划，这是提高我们对全球变化对关键生态系统服务影响的理解的强大资产。

The long-term objective of my research program is to integrate the disciplines of biogeography and biodiversity-ecosystem functioning into a coherent theoretical framework to better understand the global change impacts on ecosystems. There has been impressive progress in biogeography over the last fifteen years to predict the impact of global changes on range shifts, extinction risks and the future distribution of biodiversity. These studies however ignore the impacts of biotic interactions, and consequently how to scale from populations to ecosystems. This synthesis will contribute answering where, when and why changes in biodiversity will occur and what are the impacts of those changes on the provision of ecosystem services. I will build upon my previous work on trophic metacommunities and on the biodiversity-relationship to develop new models and conduct empirical investigations of their predictions. The central hypothesis of this research project is that the structure of ecological networks of interactions determines ecosystem functioning. I this predict that communities could stand considerable species turnover following global changes, but the functioning will be preserved if the structure of interactions is maintained. I will combine mathematical models and the pitcher plant microbial food web as a model experimental system to fulfill the following specific objectives: i) develop a model integrating elements of biogeography, community and ecosystem ecology to better predict the impacts of global changes on community structure and ecosystem functioning; ii) study the spatial structure of complex ecological networks in a heterogeneous environment, iii) to understand how this structure affects functioning and iv) how this spatial heterogeneity could provide an evolutionary insurance in changing environments. The stimulating combination of empirical and theoretical approaches defining this research program is a strong asset to improve our understanding of the global change impacts on key ecosystem services.