Streamflow prediction at ungauged remote sites

本研究项目的主要目标是评估和改进安大略省流量评估工具(OFAT)III在未测量流域的微型水电(MHP)发电项目中的准确性、功能性、可靠性和适宜性；该项目旨在确定与未测量流域的河流流量评估相关的主要不确定性来源并量化固有误差的大小。OFAT III是目前正在开发的一种新的在线空间应用程序，它将使用称为安大略省综合水文数据的数据包自动执行一系列劳动密集型水文任务，以便为河流流量评估等水文学应用提供相关高程和绘制的水特征的集合。虽然这些水力发电机组一直受到私营和公共部门的高度关注，但在安大略省无流量的源头溪流中，对于此类项目的优化设计，水文数据记录不足。这项研究开发了一种新的方法，利用OFAT III数据集和加拿大水资源调查局100多个站点的历史径流统计数据，为人工神经网络模型(ANN)的训练准备输入数据，以估计未测量的偏远站点的径流流量。此外，它还使用了水文区划方法和季节性水文分析，以最大限度地减少误差，并产生更准确的径流估计。该项目将为微型水电站的实施开发设计工具，以推进加拿大的绿色可再生能源发电目标，并促进农村社区的可持续发展。这项研究将有助于加拿大新兴微型水电技术制造商的进步，开发工程设计工具，使其更具成本竞争力。

The main goal of this research project is to evaluate and improve the accuracy, functionality, reliability, and suitability of Ontario Flow Assessment Tools (OFAT) III for micro-hydropower (MHP) generation projects in ungauged basins; this projects aims to identify the main sources of uncertainty and quantify the magnitude of the inherent error associated with stream flow assessment in ungauged basins. OFAT III is a new online spatial application currently under development that will automate a series of labour intensive hydrology tasks using data packages, known as Ontario Integrated Hydrology Data, to provide a collection of related elevation and mapped water features for hydrology applications, such as stream flow assessment. Although these hydro-electric power generators have been receiving a great deal of attention from both private and public sectors, there are inadequate records of hydrological data for optimum design of such projects in ungauged, headwater streams, in Ontario. This study develops novel methods for estimation of stream flow at ungauged remote sites using an integrated approach that employs OFAT III datasets and Water Survey of Canada historic stream flow statistics at over 100 stations to prepare input data for the training of an artificial neural network model (ANN). Further it employs the hydrological regionalization methods and seasonal hydrologic analysis to minimize the error and generate a more accurate estimation of streamflow. This project will develop design tools for implementation of micro-hydropower generation stations to advance Canada's green renewable energy generation goals and advance sustainable development in rural communities. This research will contribute to advancement of Canadian manufacturers of emerging micro-hydropower technologies with development of engineering design tools to make them more cost-competitive.