Prediction of extreme hydrologic events at gauged and ungauged locations under climate change conditions

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Extreme hydrological events, such as floods and droughts, are associated with serious economic and social impacts. The adequate estimation and prediction of such events is hence of high importance. These estimates are used for the design and operation of flood protection and hydraulic structures, such as dams, spillways, weirs or diversion works. Local hydrological frequency analysis relates the magnitude of extreme hydrological events to their frequency of occurrence, and is commonly used for the estimation of flood quantiles corresponding to specific return periods when hydrological data is available. At sites where little or no data are available, regional frequency analysis is commonly used for the estimation of extreme hydrological events. The short term objectives of this research program are 1) to integrate information concerning climate variability (inherent inter-annual modulations) and change (long term trends) in local and regional hydrological frequency analysis tools; 2) to allow local and regional hydrological frequency models to take into consideration the multivariate nature of hydrological events, and 3) to properly handle the non-linearities in hydrological phenomena in local and regional hydrological frequency models. The long term objective of the research program is to improve our knowledge about extreme hydrological events and to develop a general framework for risk estimation that integrates all the elements listed above.***The proposed research will lead to the development of new scientific knowledge concerning extreme hydrological phenomena and a set of cutting-edge practical engineering tools for the design and operation of hydraulic structures. The knowledge and tools to be developed will serve to improve decision-making capabilities by water resources managers, decreasing hence public exposure to natural hazard risks and reducing the costs associated with the development and operation of costly hydraulic structures. The proposed research program will contribute to the training of a large number of highly qualified personnel who will contribute in the future to the activities of academic research labs, hydroelectric utilities, federal and provincial agencies dealing with water resources, and private consulting firms. These developments will provide tangible economic benefits to water resources managers and to Canada.