Toward technologically sound and sustainable energy systems: Tools in support of decision-making

能源的可持续供应是当前社会面临的最重大挑战之一。这一领域的决策极其复杂；不仅需要考虑的因素非常多，而且在许多情况下，这些决定将具有长期影响。这项工作的目的是在我以前在这一领域的研究的基础上，开发单独的模块化工具，供决策者单独使用以及结合使用，为能源系统规划和管理的高级别决策提供信息。这些工具(如框架、方法)将以工程基础为基础，在技术上严格，但也足够透明，使非专家能够放心地应用它们。因此，决策者将能够更好地从环境、经济和社会角度确定技术健全和可持续的能源系统解决方案。 该研究计划的总体目标是生成信息和决策工具，以帮助在市、省和联邦范围内规划和管理可持续能源系统。从长远来看，目标是利用工程师的系统分析技能来描述现有和新兴能源技术的特点，将这些知识与社会科学的贡献结合起来，并开发可供非专家使用的工具，以帮助他们了解、规划和管理能源系统。短期目标是开发单独的模块化工具，可供安大略省的决策者单独使用，也可组合使用。具体目标包括： (1)建立一个模式，将现有能源载体与能源需求联系起来，但受可持续性以及技术和资金不确定性的限制；以及 (2)开发专门用于设计灵活、适应性强的能源系统的工具。 这项工作预计将对与能源系统规划和管理有关的政策的制定产生重大影响，提供基于对能源系统及其可持续性的深厚工程知识的见解，并认识到必须根据其作出决定的不确定性。 预计其他工程研究人员也会发现这些工具很有价值，例如：它们可以在新技术设计的早期使用，以考虑它们在某些应用程序中的表现如何，以及它们与其他应用程序的比较情况；或者，它们可以用于检查未来可能出现的能源系统情景以及需要工程解决方案的挑战。 工程师在以有用的方式向决策者提供他们所需的信息方面发挥着重要作用。能源对我们社会的内在重要性，以及我们在可持续供应和使用能源方面继续面临的日益严峻的挑战，要求我们努力寻求技术上合理和可持续的解决办法。

The sustainable supply of energy is one of the most significant challenges society currently faces. Decision-making in this area is extremely complex; not only are there a very large number of factors to consider, in many cases the decisions will have long-term implications. The aim of this work is to build on my previous research in this area to develop individual, modular tools that can be used by decision-makers individually, as well as in combination, to inform high-level decisions on energy systems planning and management. These tools (e.g., frameworks, methods) will be based in engineering fundamentals and technically rigorous, but also sufficiently transparent that non-experts will feel comfortable applying them. As such, decision-makers will be better able to identify energy system solutions that are both technologically sound and sustainable from environmental, economic and social perspectives. The overarching objective of this research program is to generate information and decision-making tools to help in the planning and management of sustainable energy systems, on municipal, provincial and federal scales. In the long-term, the aim is to leverage the systems analysis skills of engineers to both characterize existing and emerging energy technologies, to combine that knowledge with contributions from the social sciences, and to develop tools that can be used by non-experts to help them understand, plan and manage energy systems. In the short-term, the goal is to develop individual, modular tools that can be used by decision-makers in Ontario individually, as well as in combination. Specific objectives include: (1) To create a model linking available energy carriers and energy demands, subject to the constraints of sustainability, as well as technical and financial uncertainty; and (2) To develop a tool specifically for the design of flexible, and adaptable energy systems. This work is expected to have a significant impact on the development of policy related to energy systems planning and management, by providing insights based on strong engineering knowledge of energy systems and their sustainability, combined with an appreciation of the uncertainties under which decisions must be made. It is also expected that other engineering researchers will find these tools valuable, for example: They can be used early in the design of new technologies to consider how well they will perform in certain applications and how they compare to others; or, they can be used to examine possible future energy system scenarios and the challenges that will need engineering solutions. Engineers have a significant role to play in providing decision-makers with the information they need, in a usable manner. The intrinsic importance of energy to our society and the increasing challenges we continue to face in its sustainable supply and use require that we work toward technologically sound and sustainable solutions.