Incorporating Renewable Energy Sources into Electricity Grids: Challenges for Energy Systems Modeling

在加拿大，38%的二氧化碳排放量来自343家大型排放者，其中14家是燃煤发电厂，占二氧化碳总排放量的12%。在全球范围内，中国、澳大利亚、印度、美国和德国45%或更多的电力来自煤炭。尽管煤炭在一次能源中的份额预计将从2012年的30%下降到2035年的27%，但煤炭需求将不可避免地增加，因为同期整体能源需求（尤其是电力需求）预计将增长41%。由于公众反对核能，水力发电能力的扩张也受到限制，天然气和可再生能源（风能、太阳能、生物质能）构成了煤炭最重要的替代品。天然气目前被视为取代煤炭的最佳选择，因为它的二氧化碳排放量要低得多，而且页岩气储量丰富。然而，政策制定者和环保组织越来越关注可再生能源，以应对气候变化。

In Canada, 38% of CO2 emissions come from 343 large emitters, of which 14 are coal-fired power plants that account for 12% of total CO2e emissions. At a global level, 45% or more of the electricity generated in China, Australia, India, the U.S. and Germany comes from coal. Although coal’s share of primary energy is projected to decline from 30% in 2012 to 27% by 2035, coal demand will inevitably increase because overall energy demand (especially for electricity) is projected to increase by 41% over the same period. Since the public opposes nuclear energy and there are limits on the expansion of hydroelectric capacity, natural gas and renewables (wind, solar, biomass) constitute the most important alternatives to coal. Natural gas is currently viewed as the best option for replacing coal because of its much lower CO2 emissions and its abundance because of shale gas plays. Yet, policymakers and environmental organizations increasingly focus on renewable energy for addressing climate change.