Non-climatic controls on tree species distributions under climate change

我的研究计划的长期目标是调查树种对气候变化的反应，表现为其地理分布的扩大或缺乏，特别关注非气候因素在这种反应中的作用。预测未来物种在气候变化下的分布是我们目前面临的最大科学挑战之一。通常，科学家们试图通过研究气候和物种分布之间的直接联系来解决这一挑战；然而，非气候因素的影响，如土壤条件或物种相互作用，有时会超过气候影响，需要实地试验来梳理出它们的个人贡献。我最近的研究表明，非气候因素，如种子捕食和土壤生物，对气候变化下的树种分布限制具有压倒一切的影响，这可能在整个生命阶段发生变化。我还展示了景观尺度的干扰，比如火灾，可以刺激物种对气候变化的分布反应。在接下来的五年里，我的短期目标是通过进行明确的实验来进一步提高我们对物种分布的非气候控制的理解：

The long-term goal of my research program is to investigate tree species response to climate change as expressed by the expansion, or lack thereof, of their geographic distributions, with a particular focus on the role non-climatic factors play in that response. Predicting the distribution of future species under climate change is one of the greatest scientific challenges we currently face. Usually, scientists try to address this challenge by looking at the direct links between climate and species distributions; however, the effects of non-climatic factors, such as soil conditions or species interactions, can sometimes override climate effects, requiring field experimentation to tease out their individual contributions. My recent research has shown that non-climatic factors, such as seed predation and soil organisms, have an overriding effect on tree species distribution limits under climate change, which can change across life stages. I’ve also shown that landscape-scale disturbances, such as fires, can spur a species’ distributional response to climate change. Over the next five years, my short-term goal is to further advance our understanding of non-climatic controls on species distributions by conducting explicit experiments addressing: