NSERC / Hydro-Quebec Industrial Research Chair in short-term forecasting of precipitation: Phase II

魁北克水电公司是北美领先的公用事业公司，水力发电和配电是其运营中最重要的方面。水力发电的有效发电和分配有赖于对水库和流域入库流量的准确预测，而入库流量的准确预测又受降水类型和数量预测的好坏的影响。在工业研究教席方案的第一阶段，开发了各种工具，以改进对在一到两天的提前时间内何时、何地、多少和什么类型的降水的预测。在第二阶段，这一预测交付期将增加到一周，这将对 水电的容量管理。 NSERC/HYDRO-QUBEC教席在第二阶段的研究计划的目标是通过在第一阶段获得的工具和结果的基础上，将降水预报提高到7天。主要重点将是开发一个跨模式分辨率的统一的气溶胶-微物理多时刻方案，并改进加拿大计算机天气预报模式中覆盖全球的对流表现。另一个重点是评估全球和区域各级的定量降水和水文预报，因为它更好地反映了对流、云和降水过程。预计该研究项目将提高降雨量的预测能力，为水电容量管理带来显著的经济效益。拟议的计划还将为麦吉尔实习生、魁北克水电科学家和加拿大环境部研究人员之间的合作研究维持一个刺激的环境。

Hydro-Quebec is a leading utility company in North America and hydro-electric power generation and distribution is the most significant aspect of her operation. The efficient generation and distribution of hydro-electric power depends on accurate forecast of inflows in reservoirs and drainage basins, which in turn is affected significantly by the quality of the forecast of the type and amount of precipitation. During the first Phase of the Industrial Research Chair program, various tools have been developed to improve the forecast of when, where, how much, and what type of precipitation would occur over a lead time of one to two days. During Phase II, this forecast lead time will be increased to one week which would be highly beneficial for capacity management of hydroelectric power. The objective of the research program for the NSERC/Hydro-Quebec Chair in Phase II is to improve precipitation forecasts up to 7 days by building on the tools and results obtained during Phase I. The key focal point will be to develop a unified aerosol-microphysics multi-moment scheme across model resolutions, and to improve the representation of convection in the Canadian computer weather prediction model covering the whole globe. Another focus is to evaluate the quantitative precipitation and hydrological forecast over global and regional scales as a result of the better representation of convective and cloud and precipitation processes. It is anticipated that the research program would improve the prediction of precipitation, resulting in significant economic benefits in capacity management of hydroelectric power. The proposed program will also maintain a stimulating environment for collaborative research between McGill trainees, Hydro-Quebec scientists, and Environment Canada researchers.