Consortium for Permafrost Ecosystem in Transition (CPET)

不列颠哥伦比亚省东北部和邻近的南部西北地区是地球上变暖最快的地区之一，正在经历前所未有的工业扩张。气候变暖和西北偏北地区的人为干扰导致了广泛的永久冻土融化和土地覆盖变化，扰乱了水文循环以及依赖它的生态系统和人类活动。该项目将调查边界地区永久冻土融化造成的水文和生态变化，开发和动员有关这些变化的知识，开发预测模型工具，并向我们在行业、政府和社区的合作伙伴，包括原住民提供关于这些工具的互动培训。为了更好地了解和预测冻土融化的影响，我们提出了转型中的冻土生态系统联盟(CPET)。CPET具体目标概述如下：1)绘制过去60年来多年冻土、湿地和森林覆盖率的变化空间分布图；2)针对不同的地面融化和水分条件，开展实地研究以提高对径流量和径流计时的了解；3)模拟控制径流的主要水通量和储存过程；4)通过实地调查和随后的区域尺度冻土模型调整，提高我们描述更大尺度冻土影响的能力；5)估计在气候变暖和人类干扰可能的情况下，北方和亚北极地区具有不连续冻土的地貌未来的径流量和地表水储存量。提高对永久冻土融化模式、融化速度、影响和反馈的知识和预测能力将1)通过减少未来淡水供应的不确定性改善水规划、管理和安全，并使更好的缓解战略能够抵消负面影响，2)减少因融化对基础设施和财产造成的破坏而产生的建设和维护成本，并减少对环境的影响。

Northeastern British Columbia and the adjacent southern Northwest Territories are among the most rapidly warming regions on Earth, and are experiencing unprecedented industrial expansion. Climate warming and human disturbance in the NEBC-NWT border region has led to widespread permafrost thaw and landcover change that has disrupted the hydrological cycle and the ecosystems and human activities that depend on it. This project will investigate hydrological and ecological changes resulting from permafrost thaw in the border region, develop and mobilise knowledge of these changes, develop predictive modelling tools, and provide interactive training on these tools to our partners in industry, government and communities, including First Nations. In response to the need for improved understanding of and ability to predict permafrost thaw impacts, we propose the Consortium for Permafrost Ecosystems in Transition (CPET). A summary of CPET specific objectives is as follows: 1) Map the changing spatial distribution of permafrost, wetland and forest coverage over the past 60 years; 2) For different ground thaw and moisture conditions, conduct field studies to improve the understanding of the volume and timing of runoff; 3) Simulate the major water flux and storage processes controlling runoff; 4) Improve our ability to characterize permafrost impacts at larger scales through field investigation and subsequent adaptation of the a regional-scale permafrost model; 5) Estimate future quantities of runoff and surface water storage within Boreal and subarctic landscapes with discontinuous permafrost under possible scenarios of climate warming and human disturbance. Improved knowledge and predictive capacity of permafrost thaw patterns, rates, impacts and feedbacks will 1) improve water planning, management and security by reducing the uncertainty on the future availability of freshwater, and enable better mitigation strategies to offset negative impacts, and 2) reduce construction and maintenance costs arising from thaw-induced damage to infrastructure and property, and reduce environmental impact.