Understanding, Quantifying, and Predicting Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Budgets of Forest Soils under a Changing Climate in Canada

加拿大拥有世界上大约10%的森林和大约25%的北方森林。北方森林特别容易受到气候变化和生态系统干扰的影响，因为其树木寿命长，而且在其生命周期内预期气候变化的程度很大。气候变化和由此造成的生态系统干扰的增加预计将大大改变加拿大未来的森林生长和生产、温室气体排放和预算。加拿大森林生态系统在全球温室气体预算中的未来作用对决策者考虑控制温室气体排放的紧迫性和机制以及潜在的适应战略非常重要。有迫切需要发展一个更好的科学认识和量化未来气候变化对加拿大森林生态系统的影响，包括生态系统的生产力，温室气体（CO2，CH4，N2O）的预算，并在土地和大气之间的流量的时间和规模的变化。 该研究计划的中心目标是开发和使用最先进的计算机模拟模型，以充分核算加拿大森林土壤中的温室气体预算，并调查未来气候变化对加拿大森林土壤温室气体预算的影响。该计划将开发一种原创和创新的方法，以解决日益重要的气候变化缓解和适应问题以及温室气体减排目标。该研究计划将培养14名高素质的人才（包括1名博士后，2名博士，1名硕士和10名本科生，他们具有最先进的建模，分析和统计方法以及温室气体预算会计的专业知识）。这项研究的成果将填补森林工作者、森林管理人员和来自联邦机构、地方政府、林业和私营公司的决策者所需的信息空白，以促进正在进行的《京都议定书》谈判，为加拿大的可持续森林管理制定基于温室气体的指标，并制定减缓和适应战略。

Canada contains approximately 10% of the world's forests and approximately 25% of world's boreal forests. Boreal forests are especially vulnerable to climate change and ecosystem disturbances due to the longevity of the life of its trees and the extent of expected climate change within their life span. Changes in climate and resultant increases in ecosystem disturbances are expected to significantly alter future forest growth and production, greenhouse gas emissions and budgets in Canada. The future role of Canadian forest ecosystems in the global greenhouse gas budget is very important for policy makers considering the urgency and mechanisms for controlling greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and potential adaptation strategies. There is an urgent need to develop a better scientific understanding and to quantify the impacts of future climate change on forest ecosystems in Canada, including ecosystem productivity, GHG (CO2, CH4, N2O) budgets, and changes in the timing and magnitude of fluxes between the land and the atmosphere. The central objective of this research program is to develop and use state-of-the-art computer simulation models for full accounting of the GHG budgets in Canada’s forest soils and investigating the impacts of future climate change on the GHG budgets of forest soils across Canada. This program will develop an original and innovative approach to address the increasingly important issues of climate change mitigation and adaptation as well as greenhouse gas emission reduction targets. This research program will train 14 highly qualified personnels (including 1 Post-doctoral, 2 Ph.D, 1 Master, and 10 undergraduate students with expertise in state-of-the art modeling, analytical and statistical methods and GHG budget accounting). The outputs of this research will fill the information gaps needed by foresters, forest managers, and policy-makers from federal agencies, local governments, forest industry and private companies for the ongoing negotiation of the Kyoto Protocol, developing GHG-based indicators for sustainable forest management, and mitigation and adaptation strategies in Canada.