Vulnerability and resiliency of continuous permafrost in a changing climate: Thresholds of non-recoverable change.

尽管北极气候变暖的趋势和永久冻土温度的相应增加有据可查，但连续的永久冻土系统对气候变化的反应仍然存在巨大的不确定性。一些基于模型的研究表明，广泛的地形不稳定，融化和永久冻土消失，而最近的实地研究表明，永久冻土系统可能比模拟情景所暗示的更具弹性。关于永久冻土对气候变化的反应的一般化可能导致对碳通量、景观变化和基础设施问题的估计出现错误。迫切需要对活动层和冻土上部的热湿通量进行经验观测，以更好地约束模拟活动。

Despite the well-documented warming trend in Arctic climate and a corresponding increase in permafrost temperatures there remains tremendous uncertainty about the response of continuous permafrost systems to climate change. Several model-based studies suggest widespread terrain instability, melting and disappearance of permafrost, while recent field-based studies indicate that permafrost systems may be more resilient than modelling scenarios imply. Generalizations concerning permafrost response to climate change can result in errors in estimates of carbon flux, landscape change and infrastructure problems. There is an urgent need for empirical observation of heat and moisture fluxes for the active layer and the upper part of permafrost to better constrain modeling activities.