Streamflow prediction at ungauged remote sites

该研究项目的主要目标是评估和提高安大略流量评估工具（OFAT）III在无资料流域的微型水电（MHP）发电项目的准确性、功能性、可靠性和适用性;该项目旨在确定不确定性的主要来源，并量化与无资料流域的河流流量评估相关的固有误差的大小。OFAT III是目前正在开发的一个新的在线空间应用程序，将使用称为安大略综合水文数据的数据包自动执行一系列劳动密集型水文任务，为水文应用程序（如溪流流量评估）提供一系列相关高程和绘制的水特征。虽然这些水力发电机已经收到了私营和公共部门的极大关注，但在安大略的未测量的源头河流中，没有足够的水文数据记录用于此类项目的优化设计。本研究开发了新的方法，估计在无测量的远程站点使用综合方法，采用OFAT III数据集和加拿大水资源调查历史流量统计数据在100多个站的人工神经网络模型（ANN）的训练准备输入数据。此外，它采用水文区划方法和季节水文分析，以尽量减少误差，并产生一个更准确的流量估计。该项目将开发微型水力发电站的设计工具，以推进加拿大的绿色可再生能源发电目标，并推动农村社区的可持续发展。这项研究将有助于推动加拿大新兴微型水电技术制造商开发工程设计工具，使其更具成本竞争力。

The main goal of this research project is to evaluate and improve the accuracy, functionality, reliability, and suitability of Ontario Flow Assessment Tools (OFAT) III for micro-hydropower (MHP) generation projects in ungauged basins; this projects aims to identify the main sources of uncertainty and quantify the magnitude of the inherent error associated with stream flow assessment in ungauged basins. OFAT III is a new online spatial application currently under development that will automate a series of labour intensive hydrology tasks using data packages, known as Ontario Integrated Hydrology Data, to provide a collection of related elevation and mapped water features for hydrology applications, such as stream flow assessment. Although these hydro-electric power generators have been receiving a great deal of attention from both private and public sectors, there are inadequate records of hydrological data for optimum design of such projects in ungauged, headwater streams, in Ontario. This study develops novel methods for estimation of stream flow at ungauged remote sites using an integrated approach that employs OFAT III datasets and Water Survey of Canada historic stream flow statistics at over 100 stations to prepare input data for the training of an artificial neural network model (ANN). Further it employs the hydrological regionalization methods and seasonal hydrologic analysis to minimize the error and generate a more accurate estimation of streamflow. This project will develop design tools for implementation of micro-hydropower generation stations to advance Canada's green renewable energy generation goals and advance sustainable development in rural communities. This research will contribute to advancement of Canadian manufacturers of emerging micro-hydropower technologies with development of engineering design tools to make them more cost-competitive.