Unlocking links between predicting explosive volcanism and forecasting its effects on climate

自从公元79年庞贝被摧毁以来，火山灾害以毁灭性的火山碎屑流的形式吸引了几代科学家和非科学家的注意和想象力。然而，与2010年春季相对较小的艾雅法拉火山喷发有关的长期火山灰云对全球经济造成的后果让世界完全措手不及，显示出我们对喷发动态的理解存在差距，以及在日益全球化的世界中评估风险的新挑战。小冰河时代在1300年至1850年期间导致了整个欧洲的饥荒和相关的大量人口下降，现在最好的解释是，与特别集中在环太平洋地区的大范围火山爆发有关的新的气候效应的结果，使与2010年事件相关的不安更加尖锐。

Since the destruction of Pompeii in AD 79, volcanic hazards in the form of devastating pyroclastic flows have captured the attention and imaginations of scientists and non-scientists alike for generations. The global economic consequences of the long-lived ash cloud related to the relatively small Eyjafjallajökull eruption in the spring of 2010, however, caught the world off guard entirely and demonstrated gaps in our understanding of eruption dynamics, as well as new challenges for assessing risks in an increasingly globalized world. That the Little Ice Age, which led to famines and associated vast population declines across Europe between 1300 and 1850, is now best explained as a consequence of novel climate effects related to extensive explosive volcanism particularly concentrated around the Pacific rim makes unease related to the 2010 event more acute.