Unlocking links between predicting explosive volcanism and forecasting its effects on climate

解锁预测爆发性火山活动和预测其对气候影响之间的联系

• 批准号: RGPIN-2017-03786
• 负责人: Jellinek, Andrew
• 金额: $ 4.23万
• 依托单位: University of British Columbia
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2019-01-01 至 2020-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=690830
• 关键词: Unlocking; links; between; predicting; explosive

Since the destruction of Pompeii in AD 79, volcanic hazards in the form of devastating pyroclastic flows have captured the attention and imaginations of scientists and non-scientists alike for generations. The global economic consequences of the long-lived ash cloud related to the relatively small Eyjafjallajökull eruption in the spring of 2010, however, caught the world off guard entirely and demonstrated gaps in our understanding of eruption dynamics, as well as new challenges for assessing risks in an increasingly globalized world. That the Little Ice Age, which led to famines and associated vast population declines across Europe between 1300 and 1850, is now best explained as a consequence of novel climate effects related to extensive explosive volcanism particularly concentrated around the Pacific rim makes unease related to the 2010 event more acute.******Through 12 tasks involving experimental, theoretical and computational studies of novel aspects of the dynamics of volcanic eruptions, as well as complementary field and remote sensing studies, this proposal will make critical progress on 2 major thematic questions: ******Do volcanic eruptions modulate or even drive centennial to millenial climate variability with potentially dramatic societal consequences such as the profound European famines that occurred during the “Little Ice Age”? ******Are seismic tremors related to pre-eruptive magma flow reliable precursors of dangerous eruptions, and are these dynamics expressed in the behavior of, and deposits from, eruption plumes?******Progress on each thematic question shares the challenge of resolving and understanding small-scale processes related to the dynamics of particle-fluid mixtures, as well as recognizing their expression in varied geological and geophysical data. My lab is uniquely positioned to make progress. In addition to an established recent record of quantitative field studies, the continuing success of my experimental geological fluid mechanics program motivated construction of the state-of-the-art EOAS Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), which opened in 2012/13, and formed the basis for establishing a successful CFI John Evans Leadership Fund-supported Centre for Geophysical Mixing in the Earth System (CGMES) in 2015/2016. CGMES includes critical infrastructure dedicated to resolving mixing processes in particle-laden flows at all scales of interest. This proposal leverages these capabilities along with my established breadth of experience in volcanology, geodynamics, mantle-climate coupling, planetary science and Earth systems science. This work will train 5 PhD students and 2 MSc students to identify and address cutting edge scientific problems and to carry out work using varied and innovative technical methodologies. In addition, I will involve 10-15 undergraduates at 2nd, 3rd and 4th year (i.e., theses) levels in all aspects of the work.**

自从公元79年庞贝城被摧毁以来，毁灭性的火山碎屑流形式的火山灾害已经吸引了几代科学家和非科学家的注意力和想象力。然而，与2010年春季规模相对较小的埃亚菲亚德拉冰盖火山喷发有关的长期火山灰云对全球经济造成的后果，使世界完全措手不及，并表明我们对火山喷发动力学的理解存在差距，以及在日益全球化的世界中评估风险的新挑战。小冰河时代导致了1300年至1850年间欧洲的饥荒和相关的人口大幅下降，现在最好的解释是与广泛的爆炸性火山活动有关的新气候效应，特别是集中在太平洋沿岸，这使得与2010年事件有关的不安更加严重。通过对火山爆发动力学的新方面进行实验、理论和计算研究以及补充性实地和遥感研究等12项任务，本提案将在两个主要专题问题上取得重大进展：****** 火山爆发是否会调节或甚至驱动百年至千年的气候变化，从而产生潜在的戏剧性社会后果，例如欧洲严重的饥荒，发生在“小冰河时期”** 与喷发前岩浆流有关的地震震动是否是危险喷发的可靠前兆，这些动力学是否表现在喷发羽流的行为和沉积物中？**在每个专题问题上取得的进展都面临着解决和理解与粒子-流体混合物动力学有关的小规模过程以及认识其在各种地质和地球物理数据中的表现的挑战。我的实验室有独特的优势来取得进展。除了定量实地研究的最新记录外，我的实验地质流体力学计划的持续成功激励了最先进的EOAS地球物理流体动力学实验室（GFDL）的建设，该实验室于2012/13年开放，并为建立一个成功的CFI约翰·埃文斯领导基金支持的地球系统地球物理混合中心（CGMES）奠定了基础在2015/2016年。CGMES包括关键的基础设施，致力于解决在所有感兴趣的尺度的颗粒负载流的混合过程。这个提议利用了这些能力，沿着我在火山学、地球动力学、地幔-气候耦合、行星科学和地球系统科学方面的广泛经验。这项工作将培训5名博士生和2名硕士生，以确定和解决前沿科学问题，并使用各种创新的技术方法开展工作。此外，我将涉及10-15名本科生在第二，第三和第四年（即，#21453;工作的各个方面 **。