Unlocking links between predicting explosive volcanism and forecasting its effects on climate

解锁预测爆发性火山活动和预测其对气候影响之间的联系

• 批准号: RGPIN-2017-03786
• 负责人: Jellinek, Andrew
• 金额: $ 4.23万
• 依托单位: University of British Columbia
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2019-01-01 至 2020-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=690830
• 关键词: Unlocking; links; between; predicting; explosive

Since the destruction of Pompeii in AD 79, volcanic hazards in the form of devastating pyroclastic flows have captured the attention and imaginations of scientists and non-scientists alike for generations. The global economic consequences of the long-lived ash cloud related to the relatively small Eyjafjallajökull eruption in the spring of 2010, however, caught the world off guard entirely and demonstrated gaps in our understanding of eruption dynamics, as well as new challenges for assessing risks in an increasingly globalized world. That the Little Ice Age, which led to famines and associated vast population declines across Europe between 1300 and 1850, is now best explained as a consequence of novel climate effects related to extensive explosive volcanism particularly concentrated around the Pacific rim makes unease related to the 2010 event more acute.******Through 12 tasks involving experimental, theoretical and computational studies of novel aspects of the dynamics of volcanic eruptions, as well as complementary field and remote sensing studies, this proposal will make critical progress on 2 major thematic questions: ******Do volcanic eruptions modulate or even drive centennial to millenial climate variability with potentially dramatic societal consequences such as the profound European famines that occurred during the “Little Ice Age”? ******Are seismic tremors related to pre-eruptive magma flow reliable precursors of dangerous eruptions, and are these dynamics expressed in the behavior of, and deposits from, eruption plumes?******Progress on each thematic question shares the challenge of resolving and understanding small-scale processes related to the dynamics of particle-fluid mixtures, as well as recognizing their expression in varied geological and geophysical data. My lab is uniquely positioned to make progress. In addition to an established recent record of quantitative field studies, the continuing success of my experimental geological fluid mechanics program motivated construction of the state-of-the-art EOAS Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), which opened in 2012/13, and formed the basis for establishing a successful CFI John Evans Leadership Fund-supported Centre for Geophysical Mixing in the Earth System (CGMES) in 2015/2016. CGMES includes critical infrastructure dedicated to resolving mixing processes in particle-laden flows at all scales of interest. This proposal leverages these capabilities along with my established breadth of experience in volcanology, geodynamics, mantle-climate coupling, planetary science and Earth systems science. This work will train 5 PhD students and 2 MSc students to identify and address cutting edge scientific problems and to carry out work using varied and innovative technical methodologies. In addition, I will involve 10-15 undergraduates at 2nd, 3rd and 4th year (i.e., theses) levels in all aspects of the work.**

自公元 79 年庞贝古城被毁以来，毁灭性的火山碎屑流所带来的火山灾害吸引了几代科学家和非科学家的关注和想象力。然而，与 2010 年春季规模相对较小的埃亚菲亚德拉冰盖喷发相关的长期火山灰云对全球经济造成的影响却让全世界措手不及，这表明我们对火山喷发动态的理解存在差距，同时也给在日益全球化的世界中评估风险带来了新的挑战。小冰期在 1300 年至 1850 年间导致了欧洲各地的饥荒和相关的人口大量减少，现在最好的解释是与广泛的火山喷发相关的新型气候影响，特别是集中在太平洋沿岸地区，这使得与 2010 年事件相关的不安变得更加严重。*******通过 12 项任务，涉及火山喷发动力学新方面的实验、理论和计算研究，以及互补的现场和遥感 研究表明，该提案将在两个主要主题问题上取得关键进展： ******火山喷发是否会调节甚至驱动百年至千年的气候变化，并可能产生严重的社会后果，例如“小冰河时期”发生的严重欧洲饥荒？ ******与喷发前岩浆流相关的地震颤动是危险喷发的可靠前兆吗？这些动力学是否以喷发羽流的行为和沉积物的形式表达出来？******每个专题问题的进展都面临着解决和理解与颗粒-流体混合物动力学相关的小规模过程的挑战，以及识别它们在不同地质和地球物理数据中的表达。我的实验室处于独特的位置，可以取得进展。除了最近建立的定量现场研究记录之外，我的实验地质流体力学项目的持续成功推动了最先进的 EOAS 地球物理流体动力学实验室 (GFDL) 的建设，该实验室于 2012/13 年启用，并为 2015/2016 年成功建立 CFI 约翰·埃文斯领导基金支持的地球系统地球物理混合中心 (CGMES) 奠定了基础。 CGMES 包括致力于解决所有感兴趣规模的颗粒负载流中的混合过程的关键基础设施。该提案利用了这些能力以及我在火山学、地球动力学、地幔-气候耦合、行星科学和地球系统科学方面的丰富经验。这项工作将培训 5 名博士生和 2 名硕士生，以识别和解决前沿科学问题，并使用各种创新的技术方法开展工作。此外，我将让 10-15 名二年级、三年级和四年级（即论文）本科生参与工作的各个方面。 **