Development of algorithms for the forces associated with flexural failure of ice

近海石油和天然气储量的勘探和生产正在向越来越北的沃茨推进，这些水域在季节性或全年性的基础上都暴露在冰盖之下。同时，这些资源的开发需要能够承受现有环境条件同时保持油气田开发的经济性的海上结构。冰力通常是海洋结构物的限制设计条件，因此，必须充分理解这些条件，并有方法确定这些力，而不过分保守。拟议研究的目的是开发一个验证模型，用于冰对锥形海洋结构物的弯曲破坏。该研究将建立在以前的工作基础上，该工作已产生了一个新的算法，用于冰对锥形结构物的弯曲破坏，但仍然没有完全模拟冰与结构物（特别是冰碎石堆）之间相互作用的所有三维方面。该研究将引入一种创新的碎石桩建模新方法，以更准确地评估使其移位所需的力。该研究还将解决两个方面的不确定性问题：模型和测量载荷之间的比较，后者在看似相似的条件下显示出相当大的分散性：以及将确定性算法扩展到考虑基本独立变量中的不确定性的概率模型。最后，该模型还将扩展到允许与多年冰的相互作用的建模。拟议的研究将有助于显着的理解，并推进建模，冰与锥形结构的相互作用。这对于加拿大北极地区海上石油和天然气储备的安全和经济开发至关重要。

Exploration and production of offshore oil and gas reserves are being pushed further and further north into waters that are exposed to ice cover on a seasonal or year-round, basis. Concurrently, the development of these resources requires offshore structures that can withstand the environmental conditions present while maintaining the economics of the hydrocarbon field development. Ice forces are often the limiting design condition for the offshore structure and thus it is imperative that these be well-understood and that there be means available to determine these forces without undue conservatism. The objective of the proposed research is the development of a validated model for the flexural failure of ice against conical offshore structures.The research will build on previous work that has resulted in a new algorithm for the flexural failure of ice against a conical structure but which still does not fully model all the three-dimensional aspects of the interaction between the ice and the structure, in particular the ice rubble pile. The research will introduce an innovative new approach to the modeling of the rubble pile to provide a more accurate assessment of the force required to displace it. The research will also address the issue of uncertainty in two aspects: the comparison between modeled and measured loads, where the latter show considerable scatter for seemingly like conditions: and the extension of the deterministic algorithm to a probabilistic model that accounts for the uncertainties in the fundamental independent variables. Finally, the model will also be extended to allow for the modeling of interactions with Multi-year ice.The proposed research will contribute significantly to the understanding, and advance the modeling, of ice interactions with conical structures. This is essential for the safe and economical development of offshore oil and gas reserves in the Canadian Arctic.