Risk-based multi-agent simulation-optimization approaches for spill response management (RMASOS) in harsh environments

海上石油泄漏不仅对环境和社会经济造成重大负面影响，而且对海洋生物和人类健康构成直接危害。据报道，在过去十年中，全球有超过10亿加仑的石油泄漏，每年有600万吨石油进入海洋。埃克森·瓦尔迪兹号油轮泄漏事件发生20多年后，人们在研究石油泄漏和改进应对措施方面做出了重大努力；然而，这显然还不足以赶上油气开发的步伐。2010年英国石油公司漏油事件正在成为最大的海上石油泄漏事件之一，也是一场生态噩梦，它揭示了工业界和政府对重大漏油事件准备不足的令人不安的事实，以及对漏油事件研究的迫切需求。尽管以框架或基础设施为重点的政策或法规相对完善，但决策支持不足可能是影响响应过程效率的主要原因之一。此外，这种情况还受到北极和北大西洋近海地区普遍存在的恶劣环境（如冷水/天气、强风、大浪和海冰）的挑战。在这样的环境中，由于脆弱的生态系统和物流挑战，石油泄漏问题更加严重，因此，更动态、更有效的响应决策支持是非常需要的。鉴于加拿大北部能源工业的快速发展造成的泄漏风险日益增加，开发新的方法、提高在恶劣环境下应对泄漏的知识基础和技术能力变得尤为关键和紧迫。为了帮助应对这些挑战并满足需求，该研究计划的短期目标是：a)开发一套基于风险的多智能体模拟优化方法，用于恶劣环境下的海上溢油响应管理（RMASOS）； b)进行实验室和现场测试，以了解和模拟响应过程，并验证和演示开发的方法。长期目标是：a)将目前的研究和培训项目发展成为一个在恶劣环境下的溢油响应和决策方面更活跃、更世界级的项目；b)通过推进科学基础和产生工程解决方案来填补空白，并帮助解决提高响应能力和有效性的长期紧迫需求。为实现这些目标，主要工作包括：1)溢油风险评估与制图；2)油类风化运动实验测试与建模；3)基于仿真的响应技术筛选；4)撇读实验仿真与建模；5)基于风险的资源配置与运行优化模拟优化耦合；6)基于多智能体辅助仿真优化的响应决策支持；7)现场试验和示范。拟议的研究计划和预期结果应该能够1)帮助填补知识和技术空白，2)促进环境应急和决策研究的重大进展，以及3)直接解决紧急和关键需求（特别是2010年BP石油泄漏事件引起的），以提高加拿大及其他地区政府和行业的应急响应能力。该项目将是加拿大首个针对恶劣环境下海上溢油反应的此类项目。还将为HQP的培训和研究人员的合作研究机会创造独特的多学科环境。这项研究将为工业、政府和社区带来显著的短期/长期效益，并有助于减轻意外污染对海洋和沿海生态系统造成的风险。

Offshore oil spills can not only cause significantly negative impacts on the environment and socio-economy but constitutes a direct hazard to marine life and human health. It is reported that in the last decade over 1 billion gallons of oil spilled worldwide and 6 million t/yr entered the oceans. Over 20 years passed after the Exxon Valdez spill, the significant efforts have been made to study oil spills and improve response practices; however, it is obviously not enough to match the steps of oil and gas development. The 2010 BP oil spill is shaping up to be one of the largest offshore oil spills and an ecological nightmare, disclosing the disturbing fact of unpreparedness of industry and governments to major spills as well as the pressing needs in oil spill research. Even though the policy or regulations focusing on framework or infrastructure is relative consummate, inadequate decision support can be one of the major reasons that embarrassed the efficiency of response process. Furthermore, such situation is challenged by harsh environments (e.g., cold water/weather, strong wind, rough wave, and sea ice) that are prevailing in the offshore areas of Arctic and Northern Atlantic oceans. Oil spills are more problematical in such environments due to the fragile ecosystems and the logistic challenges and thus, more dynamic, efficient response decision support is much desired. Given the increasing spill risks caused by the fast growth of energy industries in northern Canada, it becomes noticeably critical and urgent to develop new methodologies and improve knowledge bases and technical capacities of spill responses in harsh environments.To help address the challenges and meet the needs, the short-term goals of this proposed research program are a) to develop a set of risk-based multi-agent simulation-optimization approaches for offshore oil spill response management (RMASOS) in harsh environments, and b) to conduct lab and field tests to understand and simulate response processes, as well as validate and demonstrate the developed approaches. The long-term goals are: a) to grow the current research & training program into a more active, world-class one in spill responses & decision making in harsh environments; and b) by advancing scientific bases and generating engineering solutions to fill up the gaps and help address the long-term pressing needs of improving response capability and effectiveness. To achieve the these goals, the key tasks include: 1) Oil spill risk assessment and mapping; 2) Experimental tests and modeling of oil weathering and movement; 3) Simulation-based screening of response technologies; 4) Experimental simulation and modeling of skimming; 5) Risk-based simulation-optimization coupling for resources allocation and operation optimization; 6) Response decision support based on multi-agent aided simulation-optimization; and 7) Field tests and demonstration. The proposed research program and the expected outcomes should be able to 1) help fill the knowledge and technical gaps, 2) contribute to significant advance of environmental emergency and decision making research, and 3) directly address urgent and critical needs (particularly raised by the 2010 BP oil spill) in improving emergency response capacity of governments and industries in Canada and beyond. The program will be the first of its kind in Canada targeting offshore oil spill responses in harsh environments. Unique multi-disciplinary environments will also be created for training of HQP and collaborative research opportunities for researchers. The research would bring significant short-/long-term benefits to industry, government and communities and help mitigate the risks posed by accidental pollution to the marine and coastal ecosystems.