Toward technologically sound and sustainable energy systems: Tools in support of decision-making

能源的可持续供应是当前社会面临的最重大挑战之一。这一领域的决策极其复杂；不仅有大量的因素需要考虑，在许多情况下，这些决定将具有长期的影响。这项工作的目的是建立在我以前在这一领域的研究基础上，开发单独的模块化工具，决策者可以单独使用，也可以结合使用，为能源系统规划和管理的高层决策提供信息。这些工具（例如，框架，方法）将基于工程基础和严格的技术，但也足够透明，非专业人士可以放心地应用它们。因此，决策者将能够更好地从环境、经济和社会的角度确定技术上合理且可持续的能源系统解决方案。本研究计划的总体目标是产生信息和决策工具，以帮助规划和管理可持续能源系统，在市，省和联邦尺度。从长远来看，目标是利用工程师的系统分析技能来描述现有和新兴的能源技术，将这些知识与社会科学的贡献相结合，并开发非专家可以使用的工具，帮助他们理解，规划和管理能源系统。短期内，我们的目标是开发单独的、模块化的工具，供安大略省的决策者单独使用，也可以组合使用。具体目标包括：(1)在可持续性以及技术和财政不确定性的限制下，建立一个将现有能源载体和能源需求联系起来的模型；(2)开发一种专门用于设计灵活、适应性强的能源系统的工具。预计这项工作将对制定与能源系统规划和管理有关的政策产生重大影响，因为它提供了基于对能源系统及其可持续性的强大工程知识的见解，并认识到必须在这种情况下作出决定的不确定性。我们也期望其他工程研究人员会发现这些工具的价值，例如：它们可以在新技术设计的早期使用，以考虑它们在某些应用中的表现以及它们与其他应用的比较；或者，它们可以用来检查未来可能的能源系统场景和需要工程解决方案的挑战。工程师在以可用的方式向决策者提供他们所需的信息方面扮演着重要的角色。能源对社会的内在重要性，以及我们在能源可持续供应和使用方面不断面临的挑战，要求我们努力寻求技术上合理和可持续的解决方案。

The sustainable supply of energy is one of the most significant challenges society currently faces. Decision-making in this area is extremely complex; not only are there a very large number of factors to consider, in many cases the decisions will have long-term implications. The aim of this work is to build on my previous research in this area to develop individual, modular tools that can be used by decision-makers individually, as well as in combination, to inform high-level decisions on energy systems planning and management. These tools (e.g., frameworks, methods) will be based in engineering fundamentals and technically rigorous, but also sufficiently transparent that non-experts will feel comfortable applying them. As such, decision-makers will be better able to identify energy system solutions that are both technologically sound and sustainable from environmental, economic and social perspectives.The overarching objective of this research program is to generate information and decision-making tools to help in the planning and management of sustainable energy systems, on municipal, provincial and federal scales. In the long-term, the aim is to leverage the systems analysis skills of engineers to both characterize existing and emerging energy technologies, to combine that knowledge with contributions from the social sciences, and to develop tools that can be used by non-experts to help them understand, plan and manage energy systems. In the short-term, the goal is to develop individual, modular tools that can be used by decision-makers in Ontario individually, as well as in combination. Specific objectives include:(1) To create a model linking available energy carriers and energy demands, subject to the constraints of sustainability, as well as technical and financial uncertainty; and(2) To develop a tool specifically for the design of flexible, and adaptable energy systems.This work is expected to have a significant impact on the development of policy related to energy systems planning and management, by providing insights based on strong engineering knowledge of energy systems and their sustainability, combined with an appreciation of the uncertainties under which decisions must be made.It is also expected that other engineering researchers will find these tools valuable, for example: They can be used early in the design of new technologies to consider how well they will perform in certain applications and how they compare to others; or, they can be used to examine possible future energy system scenarios and the challenges that will need engineering solutions.Engineers have a significant role to play in providing decision-makers with the information they need, in a usable manner. The intrinsic importance of energy to our society and the increasing challenges we continue to face in its sustainable supply and use require that we work toward technologically sound and sustainable solutions.