Risk-based multi-agent simulation-optimization approaches for spill response management (RMASOS) in harsh environments

近海石油溢漏不仅会对环境和社会经济造成严重的负面影响，而且会对海洋生物和人类健康构成直接危害。据报道，在过去十年中，全世界有超过10亿加仑的石油泄漏，600万吨/年进入海洋。在Exxon巴尔德斯漏油事件发生后的20多年里，人们在研究漏油和改进应对措施方面做出了巨大努力，但显然还不足以与石油和天然气开发的步伐相匹配。2010年英国石油公司（BP）漏油事件正在成为最大的海上漏油事件之一，也是一场生态噩梦，揭示了工业界和政府对重大漏油事件毫无准备的令人不安的事实，以及对漏油研究的迫切需求。尽管针对框架或基础设施的政策或法规相对完善，但决策支持不足可能是阻碍响应过程效率的主要原因之一。此外，这种情况受到恶劣环境（例如，寒冷的水/天气、强风、巨浪和海冰），这些都是北极和北方大西洋的近海区域普遍存在的。由于脆弱的生态系统和物流挑战，石油泄漏在这种环境中更成问题，因此，更动态，更有效的响应决策支持是非常需要的。鉴于加拿大北方能源工业的快速发展所造成的泄漏风险日益增加，开发新的方法并提高恶劣环境下泄漏响应的知识基础和技术能力变得非常关键和紧迫。本研究计划的短期目标是：a）开发一套基于风险的多智能体仿真系统-恶劣环境下海上溢油应急管理（RMASOS）的优化方法，以及B）进行实验室和现场测试，以了解和模拟应急过程，以及验证和演示开发的方法。长期目标是：a）将目前的研究和培训计划发展成为一个更积极的、世界级的恶劣环境下溢油应急和决策计划;以及B）通过推进科学基础和产生工程解决方案来填补空白，并帮助解决提高应急能力和有效性的长期紧迫需求。为实现上述目标，重点研究了以下几个方面的问题：1）溢油风险评估与制图; 2）溢油风化与运移的实验测试与模拟; 3）基于模拟的响应技术筛选; 4）撇油的实验模拟与模拟; 5）基于风险的模拟-优化耦合资源配置与操作优化; 6）基于多智能体辅助仿真优化的应急决策支持; 7）现场试验与示范。拟议的研究计划和预期成果应能够：1）帮助填补知识和技术空白; 2）促进环境应急和决策研究的重大进展; 3）直接解决紧急和关键需求（特别是2010年BP石油泄漏事件引起的），以提高加拿大及其他地区政府和行业的应急响应能力。该计划将是加拿大首个针对恶劣环境下海上漏油反应的此类计划。独特的多学科环境也将为HQP的培训和研究人员的合作研究机会创造。这项研究将为工业、政府和社区带来重大的短期/长期利益，并有助于减轻意外污染对海洋和沿海生态系统造成的风险。

Offshore oil spills can not only cause significantly negative impacts on the environment and socio-economy but constitutes a direct hazard to marine life and human health. It is reported that in the last decade over 1 billion gallons of oil spilled worldwide and 6 million t/yr entered the oceans. Over 20 years passed after the Exxon Valdez spill, the significant efforts have been made to study oil spills and improve response practices; however, it is obviously not enough to match the steps of oil and gas development. The 2010 BP oil spill is shaping up to be one of the largest offshore oil spills and an ecological nightmare, disclosing the disturbing fact of unpreparedness of industry and governments to major spills as well as the pressing needs in oil spill research. Even though the policy or regulations focusing on framework or infrastructure is relative consummate, inadequate decision support can be one of the major reasons that embarrassed the efficiency of response process. Furthermore, such situation is challenged by harsh environments (e.g., cold water/weather, strong wind, rough wave, and sea ice) that are prevailing in the offshore areas of Arctic and Northern Atlantic oceans. Oil spills are more problematical in such environments due to the fragile ecosystems and the logistic challenges and thus, more dynamic, efficient response decision support is much desired. Given the increasing spill risks caused by the fast growth of energy industries in northern Canada, it becomes noticeably critical and urgent to develop new methodologies and improve knowledge bases and technical capacities of spill responses in harsh environments.To help address the challenges and meet the needs, the short-term goals of this proposed research program are a) to develop a set of risk-based multi-agent simulation-optimization approaches for offshore oil spill response management (RMASOS) in harsh environments, and b) to conduct lab and field tests to understand and simulate response processes, as well as validate and demonstrate the developed approaches. The long-term goals are: a) to grow the current research & training program into a more active, world-class one in spill responses & decision making in harsh environments; and b) by advancing scientific bases and generating engineering solutions to fill up the gaps and help address the long-term pressing needs of improving response capability and effectiveness. To achieve the these goals, the key tasks include: 1) Oil spill risk assessment and mapping; 2) Experimental tests and modeling of oil weathering and movement; 3) Simulation-based screening of response technologies; 4) Experimental simulation and modeling of skimming; 5) Risk-based simulation-optimization coupling for resources allocation and operation optimization; 6) Response decision support based on multi-agent aided simulation-optimization; and 7) Field tests and demonstration. The proposed research program and the expected outcomes should be able to 1) help fill the knowledge and technical gaps, 2) contribute to significant advance of environmental emergency and decision making research, and 3) directly address urgent and critical needs (particularly raised by the 2010 BP oil spill) in improving emergency response capacity of governments and industries in Canada and beyond. The program will be the first of its kind in Canada targeting offshore oil spill responses in harsh environments. Unique multi-disciplinary environments will also be created for training of HQP and collaborative research opportunities for researchers. The research would bring significant short-/long-term benefits to industry, government and communities and help mitigate the risks posed by accidental pollution to the marine and coastal ecosystems.