A dynamic model to predict and ensure the presence of avian control agents for a forest pest

加拿大林业部门面临的一个主要威胁是云杉芽孢子虫(以下简称“SBW”)暴发造成的木材供应减少。对SBW暴发周期的了解还不完全，特别是对SBW捕食者如何管理才能减少暴发造成的损害的审查很少。有几种是SBW幼虫的重要捕食者，特别是海湾胸林莺、五月角林莺和田纳西州林莺；(以下称为SBW连接林莺)。一种未经测试的管理方法是确保与SBW相关的林木占据有SBW爆发风险的景观。这是具有挑战性的，因为三种与SBW相连的林莺有不同的栖息地要求，并且在多个空间尺度上的生态变化可以调节它们是否会在一个地区栖息。我建议使用调查、实验和验证的方法来研究导致SBW连锁林莺在同一景观中共存的栖息地选择的指导因素。*我将使用森林调查模型来确定SBW连锁林莺的繁殖栖息地。SBW调查数据将确定SBW暴发的风险地区，但仍处于SBW丰度较低的地区。结合这些数据源将确定具有必要栖息地和目前SBW水平较低但面临SBW暴发风险的地区。然后，将在多个繁殖季节对这些地区进行调查，以绘制与SBW连锁的林莺的分布图。自然，一些看似良好的栖息地不会被目标物种占据。我将通过进行吸引实验来确定这是由于生物还是行为的限制，以确定是否可以鼓励目标物种定居。*结果将产生一个模型，以：a)确定物种将占据的区域，以及b)指导森林规划，以配置斑块来增强捕食者水库(与SBW相连的林莺)，从而可以抑制SBW爆发的程度。这个模型需要验证，特别是物种如何利用栖息地，以及它们是否在低丰度时捕食SBW幼虫，因此，我将研究它们的运动模式和饮食。一批鸟类将配备无线电发射机，并不断安装自动无线电遥测站。因此，我将确定每个物种的个体如何在有低密度SBW幼虫的地区觅食。我还将通过对幼虫进行化学标记并分析鸟类中的标志物来确定占据研究区域的与SBW相关的林莺是否正在捕食SBW幼虫。这项研究将帮助我们了解鸟类如何将SBW保持在非暴发水平，并将成为森林管理者减少SBW爆发损失的森林培育工具。结果将是森林管理者的免费产品，作为统计模型和地理信息系统模型的组件层。这项研究为加拿大人提供了金钱利益，为森林管理者带来了实际利益，为许多合作机会提供了机会，并为野生动物保护带来了好处。

A major threat to Canada's forestry sector is reduction of wood supply due to outbreaks of spruce budworm (hereafter “SBW”). SBW outbreak cycles are not fully understood, in particular, there has been little examination of how managing for SBW predators can reduce damage from outbreaks. Several species are significant predators of SBW larvae, especially the bay-breasted warbler, Cape May warbler, and Tennessee warbler; (hereafter “SBW-linked warblers”). An untested management approach is to ensure SBW-linked warblers occupy landscapes at risk of SBW outbreaks. This is challenging because the three SBW-linked warblers have different habitat requirements, and ecological variation at multiple spatial scales can mediate whether they will inhabit an area. I propose to use surveys, experimentation, and validation to examine the factors guiding habitat selection in SBW-linked warblers that result in their co-existence within a landscape.******I will use forest inventory models to identify breeding habitat for SBW-linked warblers. SBW survey data will identify areas at risk of an SBW outbreak but are still at low SBW abundance. Combining these data sources will identify areas with the requisite habitat and current low SBW levels, but which are at risk of SBW outbreak. These areas will then be surveyed over multiple breeding seasons to map the distribution of SBW-linked warblers. Naturally, some seemingly good habitat will not be occupied by the target species. I will determine if this is due to biotic or behavioral constraints by performing attraction experiments to determine if the target species can be encouraged to settle. ******The results will yield a model to: a) identify areas the species will occupy, and b) guide forest planning to configure patches that boost a predator reservoir (SBW-linked warblers) that can dampen the extent of SBW outbreaks. This model will require validation, especially how the species use habitat and whether they are eating SBW larvae when they are at low abundance, therefore, I will examine their movement patterns and diet. A subsample of birds will be outfitted with radio-transmitters and followed constantly with automated radio-telemetry stations. Thus, I will determine how individuals of each species are foraging in areas where low-density SBW larvae are available. I will also determine if SBW-linked warblers occupying study areas are eating SBW larvae by chemically marking the larvae and assaying for the markers in birds.******This research will help us understand how birds keep SBW at non-outbreak levels, and will be a silvicultural tool for forest managers to reduce losses from SBW outbreaks. The results will be a free product for forest managers as a statistical model and a component layer for GIS-models. This study provides a monetary benefit for Canadians, a practical benefit for forest managers, numerous opportunities for collaboration, and a conservation benefit for wildlife.