Understanding, Quantifying, and Predicting Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Budgets of Forest Soils under a Changing Climate in Canada

加拿大拥有世界上大约10%的森林和世界上大约25%的北方森林。北方森林特别容易受到气候变化和生态系统干扰的影响，因为其树木的寿命很长，而且在其生命周期内预期的气候变化程度很大。气候变化和由此产生的生态系统干扰的增加预计将显著改变加拿大未来的森林生长和生产、温室气体排放和预算。加拿大森林生态系统在全球温室气体预算中的未来作用对于决策者考虑控制温室气体排放的紧迫性和机制以及潜在的适应策略非常重要。目前迫切需要发展更好的科学认识并量化未来气候变化对加拿大森林生态系统的影响，包括生态系统生产力、温室气体（CO2、CH4、N2O）预算以及陆地和大气之间通量的时间和幅度的变化。**本研究计划的中心目标是开发和使用最先进的计算机模拟模型，以全面核算加拿大森林土壤的温室气体预算，并调查未来气候变化对加拿大森林土壤温室气体预算的影响。该方案将开发一种原创和创新的方法，以解决日益重要的减缓和适应气候变化问题以及温室气体减排目标。本项目将培养具有国际先进模型、分析统计方法和温室气体预算核算等方面专业知识的高素质人才14人（其中博士后1人、博士2人、硕士1人、本科生10人）。这项研究的产出将填补林业人员、森林管理者以及联邦机构、地方政府、林业和私营公司的决策者为正在进行的《京都议定书》谈判、为可持续森林管理制定基于温室气体的指标以及加拿大的缓解和适应战略所需的信息空白。

Canada contains approximately 10% of the world's forests and approximately 25% of world's boreal forests. Boreal forests are especially vulnerable to climate change and ecosystem disturbances due to the longevity of the life of its trees and the extent of expected climate change within their life span. Changes in climate and resultant increases in ecosystem disturbances are expected to significantly alter future forest growth and production, greenhouse gas emissions and budgets in Canada. The future role of Canadian forest ecosystems in the global greenhouse gas budget is very important for policy makers considering the urgency and mechanisms for controlling greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and potential adaptation strategies. There is an urgent need to develop a better scientific understanding and to quantify the impacts of future climate change on forest ecosystems in Canada, including ecosystem productivity, GHG (CO2, CH4, N2O) budgets, and changes in the timing and magnitude of fluxes between the land and the atmosphere. **The central objective of this research program is to develop and use state-of-the-art computer simulation models for full accounting of the GHG budgets in Canada's forest soils and investigating the impacts of future climate change on the GHG budgets of forest soils across Canada. This program will develop an original and innovative approach to address the increasingly important issues of climate change mitigation and adaptation as well as greenhouse gas emission reduction targets. This research program will train 14 highly qualified personnels (including 1 Post-doctoral, 2 Ph.D, 1 Master, and 10 undergraduate students with expertise in state-of-the art modeling, analytical and statistical methods and GHG budget accounting). The outputs of this research will fill the information gaps needed by foresters, forest managers, and policy-makers from federal agencies, local governments, forest industry and private companies for the ongoing negotiation of the Kyoto Protocol, developing GHG-based indicators for sustainable forest management, and mitigation and adaptation strategies in Canada.