Development of a New Framework for Watershed Systems Analysis and Modelling under Climate and Environmental Changes

由于气候变化，加拿大河流流域的水流状况正在发生变化（例如，气候变暖）和环境（如土地和水资源管理）。这些变化表现为更极端的事件，如洪水和干旱。因此，对未来水资源的可靠评估需要了解这些持续变化下流域系统的动态并建立模型。然而，即使是最严格的水文模型也没有提供什么帮助，因为它们严重依赖于“平稳性”的假设，这表明自然系统在一个恒定的变化范围内随时间波动。因此，对加拿大和其他地方未来水资源变化的预测充满了不确定性。我研究的长期目标是开发一个新的流域系统分析和建模框架，以解释非平稳性。我工作的重点是了解系统的不同自然和人为组成部分如何在不同的时间和空间尺度上发挥作用和相互作用。拟议的工作是在两个相互关联的工作包，汇集了国家的最先进的水文科学和系统理论的方法，使在理解，建模和预测加拿大不断变化的流域系统的实质性进展。预期成果对加拿大的经济和福祉具有关键价值，因为它减少了未来水资源预测的不确定性，从而改善了水资源管理，并适应了洪水和干旱等自然灾害的影响。

Flow regime in Canadian river basins is changing as a result of changes in climate (e.g., climate warming) and the environment (e.g, land and water management). These changes are manifested by more extreme events such as floods and droughts. Reliable assessment of future water availability, therefore, requires understanding and modelling the dynamics of watershed systems under these sustained changes. However, even the most rigorous hydrologic models provide little help, as they heavily rely on the assumption of ‘stationarity', which indicates that natural systems fluctuate within a constant envelope of variability through time. As a result, prediction of future changes in water availability in Canada and elsewhere is fraught with uncertainty.******The long-term goal of my research is to develop a new framework for watershed systems analysis and modelling that accounts for non-stationarity. The focus of my work is on understanding how different natural and man-made components of a system function and interact at different time and space scales. The proposed work is conducted within two inter-related work packages that bring together state-of-the-art hydrologic sciences and system-theoretic approaches to enable substantive progress in understanding, modelling, and prediction of changing watershed systems in Canada. The intended outcomes have a key value to Canadian economy and wellbeing by reducing uncertainty in projections of future water availability, leading to improved management of water resources and adaption to the impact of natural hazards such as floods and droughts.********