Risk-based multi-agent simulation-optimization approaches for spill response management (RMASOS) in harsh environments

近海石油泄漏不仅对环境和社会经济造成重大负面影响，而且对海洋生物和人类健康构成直接危害。据报道，在过去的十年中，全球有超过10亿加仑的石油泄漏，每年有600万吨石油流入海洋。在埃克森-瓦尔迪兹漏油事件发生20多年后，在研究漏油和改进应对措施方面做出了重大努力；但显然，这还不足以与石油和天然气开发的步伐相匹配。2010年的英国石油公司漏油事件正在成为最大的海上漏油事件之一，也是一场生态噩梦，暴露了行业和政府对重大漏油事件毫无准备的令人不安的事实，以及漏油研究的迫切需求。即使侧重于框架或基础设施的政策或法规相对完善，决策支持不足也可能是阻碍应对过程效率的主要原因之一。此外，北极和北大西洋近海地区普遍存在的恶劣环境(如冷水/天气、强风、巨浪和海冰)也对这种情况构成了挑战。在这样的环境中，由于脆弱的生态系统和后勤挑战，漏油问题更加严重，因此，迫切需要更动态、更有效的应对决策支持。鉴于加拿大北部能源工业的快速发展导致的泄漏风险日益增加，开发新的方法，提高恶劣环境下溢油应对的知识库和技术能力变得尤为关键和紧迫。为了应对挑战和满足需求，本研究计划的短期目标是a)开发一套基于风险的多智能体模拟-优化方法，用于恶劣环境下的海上溢油应对管理(RMASOS)，以及b)进行实验室和现场测试，以了解和模拟应对过程，以及验证和演示所开发的方法。长期目标是：a)将当前的研究和培训计划发展成为在恶劣环境下的漏油反应和决策方面更积极、更世界级的计划；b)通过发展科学基础和产生工程解决方案来填补空白，帮助解决提高反应能力和有效性的长期迫切需求。为实现这些目标，关键任务包括：1)溢油风险评估与制图；2)溢油风化与移动的实验测试与模拟；3)基于模拟的响应技术筛选；4)撇油实验模拟与建模；5)基于风险的模拟-优化资源分配与作业优化耦合；6)基于多智能体辅助模拟-优化的响应决策支持；7)现场测试与演示。拟议的研究计划和预期成果应能够1)帮助填补知识和技术空白，2)促进环境应急和决策研究的显著进步，3)直接满足在提高加拿大及其他地区政府和行业的应急能力方面的紧急和关键需求(特别是2010年BP漏油事件引发的需求)。这将是加拿大第一个针对恶劣环境下海上漏油反应的此类计划。还将为HQP的培训和研究人员的合作研究机会创造独特的多学科环境。这项研究将为工业、政府和社区带来重大的短期/长期利益，并有助于减轻意外污染对海洋和沿海生态系统构成的风险。

Offshore oil spills can not only cause significantly negative impacts on the environment and socio-economy but constitutes a direct hazard to marine life and human health. It is reported that in the last decade over 1 billion gallons of oil spilled worldwide and 6 million t/yr entered the oceans. Over 20 years passed after the Exxon Valdez spill, the significant efforts have been made to study oil spills and improve response practices; however, it is obviously not enough to match the steps of oil and gas development. The 2010 BP oil spill is shaping up to be one of the largest offshore oil spills and an ecological nightmare, disclosing the disturbing fact of unpreparedness of industry and governments to major spills as well as the pressing needs in oil spill research. Even though the policy or regulations focusing on framework or infrastructure is relative consummate, inadequate decision support can be one of the major reasons that embarrassed the efficiency of response process. Furthermore, such situation is challenged by harsh environments (e.g., cold water/weather, strong wind, rough wave, and sea ice) that are prevailing in the offshore areas of Arctic and Northern Atlantic oceans. Oil spills are more problematical in such environments due to the fragile ecosystems and the logistic challenges and thus, more dynamic, efficient response decision support is much desired. Given the increasing spill risks caused by the fast growth of energy industries in northern Canada, it becomes noticeably critical and urgent to develop new methodologies and improve knowledge bases and technical capacities of spill responses in harsh environments.To help address the challenges and meet the needs, the short-term goals of this proposed research program are a) to develop a set of risk-based multi-agent simulation-optimization approaches for offshore oil spill response management (RMASOS) in harsh environments, and b) to conduct lab and field tests to understand and simulate response processes, as well as validate and demonstrate the developed approaches. The long-term goals are: a) to grow the current research & training program into a more active, world-class one in spill responses & decision making in harsh environments; and b) by advancing scientific bases and generating engineering solutions to fill up the gaps and help address the long-term pressing needs of improving response capability and effectiveness. To achieve the these goals, the key tasks include: 1) Oil spill risk assessment and mapping; 2) Experimental tests and modeling of oil weathering and movement; 3) Simulation-based screening of response technologies; 4) Experimental simulation and modeling of skimming; 5) Risk-based simulation-optimization coupling for resources allocation and operation optimization; 6) Response decision support based on multi-agent aided simulation-optimization; and 7) Field tests and demonstration. The proposed research program and the expected outcomes should be able to 1) help fill the knowledge and technical gaps, 2) contribute to significant advance of environmental emergency and decision making research, and 3) directly address urgent and critical needs (particularly raised by the 2010 BP oil spill) in improving emergency response capacity of governments and industries in Canada and beyond. The program will be the first of its kind in Canada targeting offshore oil spill responses in harsh environments. Unique multi-disciplinary environments will also be created for training of HQP and collaborative research opportunities for researchers. The research would bring significant short-/long-term benefits to industry, government and communities and help mitigate the risks posed by accidental pollution to the marine and coastal ecosystems.