Farming on a changing planet: Developing the scientific basis for designing farming systems that are productive, have low environmental costs, and are resilient to climate change.

农业生产在过去几十年中迅速增长，增长速度超过人口增长速度。但农业也是温室气体排放、生物多样性丧失和淡水退化的主要来源。由于人口增长带来的粮食需求增加以及对谷物喂养的奶制品和肉类的需求增加，预计这种环境影响在未来几十年只会增加。更糟糕的是，气候变化预计将在世界各地造成广泛的农作物损害。这是一个三重挑战：迫切需要发展生产力高、环境成本低和适应气候变化的农业系统。 这三重挑战的解决方案尚不清楚。一些学者主张继续投资于现有的传统耕作制度和开发新技术，而另一些学者则主张过渡到替代耕作制度，包括农业生态生产方法和粮食主权。虽然有很多科学研究来了解有机农业、保护性耕作和其他方法等农业模式的有效性，但很少有人试图以综合的方式整合每种方法的所有可用证据，以评估是什么使农业系统更环保或更能适应气候变化。 我的研究计划的主要长期目标是发展科学，了解如何管理全球农业系统，以提高生产力，环境友好和气候适应能力。以未来5年的种植系统为重点，我将分析全球分布的田间试验数据（从出版物中汇编）和观察数据（来自全国农民普查/调查），以研究不同类型的耕作方法（例如，有机耕作、减少耕作、作物多样化）影响到耕作系统的环境成本及其承受气候变化和极端天气事件的能力。我的研究方法将是定量的，全球范围内，包括数据汇编和开发，地理空间分析，定量审查，荟萃分析，统计和建模。 上个世纪农业发展的重点是提高产量。但农业必须面对这样一个事实，即它既是全球环境变化的主要贡献者，也是全球环境变化的主要受害者。明智的农业发展战略应基于对最有效方法的科学理解。我的研究计划将通过为发展生产力，环境友好和气候适应性农业系统提供科学依据来应对这一挑战。

Agricultural production increased rapidly over the last decades, rising faster than human populations. But agriculture has also been a leading source of greenhouse gas emissions, biodiversity loss, and freshwater degradation. This environmental impact is only expected to increase in coming decades due to rising food demand from population growth and increasing demand for grain-fed dairy and meat. To make matters worse, climate change is expected to cause widespread crop damages around the world. This represents a triple challenge: there is an urgent need to develop farming systems that are productive, have low environmental costs, and are resilient to climate change. The solutions to this triple challenge are unclear. Some scholars argue for continued investments in existing conventional farming systems and development of new technologies, while others argue for a transition to alternative farming systems, including agroecological production methods and food sovereignty. While there has much scientific research to understand the effectiveness of farming practises such as organic farming, conservation tillage, and other approaches, there has been little attempt to consolidate all the available evidence on each approach in an integrated manner to assess what makes a farming system more environmental friendly or resilient to climate change. The main long-term objective of my research program is to develop the science to understand how to manage global farming systems to be more productive, environmentally friendly, and climate resilient. With a focus on cropping systems in the next 5 years, I will analyze globally distributed field experimental data (compiled from publications), and observational data (from national farmer censuses/surveys) to examine how different types of farming approaches (e.g., organic farming, reduced tillage, diversified crops) influence the environmental costs of farming systems, and their ability to withstand climate change and extreme weather events. My research approach will be quantitative, global in scope, and include data compilation and development, geospatial analysis, quantitative reviews, meta-analysis, statistics, and modelling. The focus of agricultural development over the last century has been on improving yields. But agriculture has to contend with the fact that it is both a major contributor to, and a major casualty of, global environmental change. A smart agricultural development strategy should be based on a scientific understanding of the most effective approaches. My research program will address this challenge by providing the scientific basis for developing productive, environmentally friendly, and climate resilient farming systems.