Managing the Hydrologic Impacts of the Built Environment

经典水文学理论假设，增加不透水表面积将导致更大的峰值径流；然而，我们的初步分析表明，美国东北部更有可能发生相反的情况。这导致了三个研究问题：1)与自然流态相比，发达盆地的水文行为如何？2)建成环境的水文变化如何影响水资源的可持续性，以及如何更好地管理它们？3)如何更好地管理或设计基础设施以模拟自然水文状况？本研究计划将采取多方面的方法，将统计分析与基于物理的水文模型相结合来回答这些问题。在整个研究过程中，将在分析中明确考虑变化和河流以及河网和气候的空间尺度，以了解这些因素是否会影响这三个研究问题的答案。将使用大数据方法来量化发达盆地与自然盆地的行为是否不同，如果是，如何不同。其次，我们将进行基于物理的模型实验，以量化这些影响向下游传播的程度。然后，将水文状况的量化变化与取水和环境流量要求结合使用，以量化人类引起的变化如何影响水资源的可持续性，以及如何平衡用水和生态系统用水需求。最后，将检查基础设施--特别是水库运营和雨水管理--看看建成的环境是否能更好地模仿自然环境。 我们的知识有一个根本性的差距：我们不知道建成的环境如何共同影响水文制度。这项研究将在多个空间尺度上产生创新的统计模型，为异质、变化的河流流域如何影响自然环境提供物理见解。这些基于物理的模型将确定面临不可持续水资源风险的地点，考虑到气候和气候变化、水的使用和水库。一系列模型实验将能够确定已确定的问题区域的原因，这些模型运行将免费传播给科学界。在这项研究中获得的知识将促进水文科学的基本理解，并将确定改进雨水管理设计和水库管理的解决方案空间。我们的水资源正面临越来越大的压力，必须在气候变化导致的供应变化、社会对市政用水和灌溉农业的需求增加以及确保环境流量以维持生态系统的日益优先之间取得平衡。这项研究将使我们能够在未来几十年做出更明智的政策和决定。

Classic hydrology theory posits that increasing impervious surface areas will lead to larger peak streamflow; however, our preliminary analyses demonstrate the opposite is more likely to occur over the northeastern United States. This leads to three research questions: 1) How are developed basins behaving hydrologically compared to the natural flow regime? and 2) How do hydrologic changes from the built environment impact water resources sustainability and how can they be better managed? 3) How can infrastructure be better managed or designed to mimic the natural hydrologic regime? This research program would take a multi-faceted approach, combining statistical analysis with physically-based hydrologic modeling to answer these questions. Throughout this research, the spatial scale of alterations and the river as well as the river network and climate will be explicitly considered in the analysis to understand if these impact the answers to these three research questions. A big data approach will be used to quantify if developed basins behave differently from natural basins and if so, how. Second, we will perform physically-based model experiments to quantify how far these impacts propagate downstream. The quantified changes in hydrologic regime will then be used in conjunction with water withdrawals and environmental flow requirements to quantify how the human-induced changes impact water resources sustainability, and how water use and ecosystem water needs can be balanced. Finally, infrastructure -- specifically reservoir operations and stormwater management -- will be examined to see if the built environment can better mimic the natural. There is a fundamental gap in our knowledge: we do not know how the built environment collectively impacts hydrologic regimes. This research will result in innovative statistical models at multiple spatial scales that provide physical insights into how heterogeneous, altered river basins impact the natural environment. The physically-based models will identify locations at risk of unsustainable water resources, accounting for climate and climate change, water use, and reservoirs. The series of model experiments will be able to identify causation of the identified problem areas, and these model runs will be freely disseminated to the scientific community. The knowledge gained during this research will both advance fundamental understanding in the hydrologic sciences and will identify solution spaces for improved stormwater management design and reservoir management. We are increasingly facing pressure on our water resources, having to balance between changing supplies due to climate, increased societal demands both for municipal water and irrigated agriculture, and an increased priority on ensuring environmental flows to sustain the ecosystem. This research will allow us to be posed to make better informed policies and decisions in the coming decades.