What is the cost-effectiveness of electric bicycles for greenhouse gas mitigation?

用电动自行车（e-bikes）代替驾驶可以减少交通运输产生的温室气体（GHG）排放，这是实现加拿大气候目标的重要组成部分。潜在的排放效益促使人们建议将推广电动自行车（通常是购买奖励或回扣）作为一种气候行动策略，同时还能带来与体育锻炼、交通拥堵等相关的好处。然而，迄今为止，还没有对电动自行车购买激励措施对温室气体排放的影响进行强有力的量化，这限制了战略性使用电动自行车促进实现温室气体缓解目标的潜力。要了解电动自行车激励措施在气候行动计划中的作用，我们需要了解这些激励措施相对于其他温室气体减排战略的成本效益如何。项目影响的准确量化需要调查由于采用电动自行车而导致的旅行活动的长期变化，并考虑与观察到的和反事实的旅行活动相关的整个生命周期排放，包括石油、电力和人类的能源投入。拟议的研究将确定：在不同人群中采用电动自行车的真正温室气体减排影响是什么，以及电动自行车激励措施作为温室气体减排战略的成本效益如何？该项目是UBC主动交通研究（REACT）实验室、不列颠哥伦比亚省萨尼奇区（该地区正在启动一项试点电动自行车购买回扣计划）、首都地区、社区社会规划委员会（CSPC）和OneEarth之间的合作项目。对现实世界温室气体影响的有力实证分析将为在加拿大其他地区和其他地区推广电动自行车作为一项气候行动战略提供重要信息——包括减缓温室气体的有效性在不同人口群体之间的差异，以及与交通公平考虑的交叉。

Substituting use of electric bicycles (e-bikes) for driving could reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from transportation - an essential component to meeting Canada's climate goals. The potential emissions benefits have led to suggestions for e-bike promotion (often purchase incentives or rebates) as a climate action strategy - with co-benefits related to physical activity, traffic congestion, and more. However, to date there has been no robust quantification of the effects of e-bike purchase incentives on GHG emissions, which limits the potential for strategic use of e-bikes to contribute to achieving GHG mitigation goals. To know the role that e-bike incentives can have in climate action plans, we need to know how cost-effective those incentives are relative to other GHG mitigation strategies. Accurate quantification of program impacts requires investigation of the long-term changes in travel activity that result from e-bike adoption, and consideration of the full life-cycle emissions associated with observed and counterfactual travel activity, including energy inputs from petroleum, electricity, and humans. The proposed research will determine: What are the true GHG mitigation impacts of e-bike adoption across different segments of the population, and how cost-effective are e-bike incentives as a GHG mitigation strategy? This project is a collaboration among the UBC Research on Active Transportation (REACT) Lab, the District of Saanich, British Columbia (which is launching a pilot e-bike purchase rebate program), the Capital Regional District, the Community Social Planning Council (CSPC), and OneEarth. A robust empirical analysis of real-world GHG impacts will create essential information for using e-bike promotion as a climate action strategy elsewhere in Canada and beyond - including how effectiveness in GHG mitigation varies across population groups and intersects with equity considerations for transportation.