Integrated water management modelling of Manitoba's river-reservoir system under changing climate

建议开发一个综合水管理（IWM）模型，以量化气候变化和人类决策对尼尔森河流域供水和水力发电行业的不利影响，并评估缓解和适应计划。纳尔逊河流经中高纬度地区，易受气候变化的影响。这对马尼托巴水电公司的运营构成了挑战，该公司是马尼托巴省唯一的电力供应商，大约95%的电力来自水力发电。IWM模型是量化人为和气候驱动变化下水资源系统绩效的高级决策支持工具。需要研究开发纳尔逊河的IWM模型，该模型能够模拟其自然和人为调节成分之间的复杂相互联系和反馈回路。还需要进行研究，以估计气候变化对未来供水的影响。为此，先进的基于物理的水文模式将与IWM模式相结合，并运行由区域和全球气候模式预测的一系列情景。该项目将为马尼托巴省的水电行业提供数据、严格的技术、方法和人员，以分析气候变化下中期运营和长期资源规划决策对水电生产能力的影响。成果和已开发的技术将在国家和国际期刊和会议上传播，并将在一个讲习班上转让给工业伙伴，目的是增加它们对新模式的知识，并增强它们将新模式应用于其决策支持系统的信心。讲习班将在全国范围内进行宣传，以吸引其他主要的水力发电生产商，包括卑诗水电公司、安大略发电公司和Hydro- qubec公司。加拿大是世界上第三大水电生产国，其60%以上的电力需求和80%以上的电力出口都是通过水力发电提供的。更高效的水电运营将为所有加拿大人带来好处，包括增加可再生能源的生产，降低与气候变化相关的风险。

It is proposed to develop an Integrated Water Management (IWM) model to quantify adverse impacts of climate change and human decisions on the water supply and hydroelectric generating industry in the Nelson River basin and evaluate mitigation and adaptation plans. The Nelson River traverses mid- to high-latitude regions and is vulnerable to climate change. This poses a challenge to the operations of Manitoba Hydro, the sole electricity provider in Manitoba where roughly 95% of electricity comes from hydropower. IWM models are advanced decision support tools for quantifying water resources system performance under anthropogenic and climate-driven changes. Research is required to develop an IWM model of the Nelson River capable of simulating the complex interconnections and feedback loops between its natural and human-regulated components. Research is also required to estimate the impacts of climate change on future water supplies. To this end, advanced physically-based hydrologic models will be coupled with the IWM model and run for a range of scenarios predicted by regional and global climate models. This project will provide the hydropower industry in Manitoba with data, rigorous technologies, methodology, and personnel to analyze the impact of mid-term operation and long-term resource planning decisions on hydroelectricity production capabilities under a changing climate. Outcomes and developed technologies will be disseminated at national and international journals and conferences and will be transferred to the industrial partner in a workshop designed to increase their knowledge of the new models, and their confidence in applying them to their decision support system. The workshop will be advertised nationally to attract other major hydroelectricity producers, including BC Hydro, Ontario Power Generation and Hydro-Québec. Canada is the 3rd largest hydropower producer on the planet, supplying more than 60% of its electricity demand and more than 80% of its electricity export through hydropower. More efficient hydropower operations will lead to benefits for all Canadians, including increased renewable power production and reduced risks associated with a changing climate.