Habitat suitability and climate modelling for predicting the risk of new invasive plants in Metro Vancouver

气候变化预计将促进入侵植物物种范围的扩大，包括入侵植物向北迁移到加拿大。与气候变化相关的更频繁的极端天气事件(例如洪水或风暴)也将促进更大的传播。由于有利的气候和多样的地形，温哥华大都会地区已经很容易受到入侵植物的攻击，预计夏天更热、更干燥，冬天更温暖、更潮湿。作为加拿大的主要入境口岸，温哥华大都会为潜在的入侵者提供了无数的通道。由于许多这些潜在的入侵植物物种靠近边境以南，或者可能通过贸易到达温哥华大都会，因此，由于气候变化，优先考虑潜在的入侵植物是很重要的。我们建议为温哥华大都市区在气候变化下的生境适宜性建模方法，结合这个大都市区多样化的景观镶嵌的独特特征，并考虑到入侵物种的潜在进化变化。我们的合作伙伴包括温哥华麦德龙，既是资金合作伙伴，也是应用研究成果的战略合作伙伴。另外两个合作伙伴也将帮助制定这一方法：卑诗省农业部和温哥华大都会入侵物种理事会(ISCMV)。这些组织了解问题并采取行动的能力使它们成为理想的合作伙伴。不列颠哥伦比亚省政府已经制定了省级风险评估，我们将以此为基础，通过气候变化的视角检查温哥华大都会的优先物种。代表我们不列颠哥伦比亚省农业部合作伙伴的Shaina Lee-Chai带来了她之前完成的一个项目的专业知识，该项目预测在气候变化下艾伯塔省将出现新的入侵植物。这项研究将由三一西部大学的大卫·克莱门茨和不列颠哥伦比亚大学的詹妮弗·威廉姆斯共同指导的一名硕士学生进行。两名本科生将组成这个团队。这种多样化的伙伴关系将为受训者提供公平、多样性和包容性方面的科学培训和指导。

Climate change is expected to facilitate range expansion of invasive plant species, including northward movement of invasive plants into Canada. More frequent extreme weather events associated with climate change (e.g., floods or storms) will also foster increased spread. The Metro Vancouver area is already vulnerable to invasive plants because of a favourable climate and diverse landscape, and is expected to experience hotter drier summers and warmer wetter winters. As a major port of entry into Canada, Metro Vancouver provides numerous pathways for potential invaders. With many of these potential invasive plant species nearby south of the border or likely to reach Metro Vancouver through trade, it is important to prioritize potential invasive plant invaders due to climate change. We propose to develop methodology for modelling habitat suitability under climate change for Metro Vancouver, incorporating unique features of the diverse landscape mosaic of this metropolitan region, and accounting for potential evolutionary changes in the invasive species. Our partnerships include Metro Vancouver both as a funding partner, and as strategic partner for applying study results. Two other partners will also help shape the approach: the BC Ministry of Agriculture and the Invasive Species Council of Metro Vancouver (ISCMV). The ability of these organizations to both understand the issues and take action make them ideal partners. The BC Provincial government has already developed Provincial-scale risk assessments, which we will build on by examining priority species for Metro Vancouver through the lens of climate change. Shauna Lee-Chai, representing our BC Ministry of Agriculture partner, brings her expertise from previously completing a project predicting new invasive plants for the Province of Alberta under climate change. The research will be carried out by a Master's student co-supervised by David Clements at Trinity Western University and Jennifer Williams at the University of British Columbia. Two undergrad research students will complete the team. This diverse partnership will provide the trainees with both scientific training and mentoring in equity, diversity, and inclusiveness.