Standardized Storm Water Infrastructure Design and Planning Protocols for Capacity Limited Communities and Climate Change Uncertainty

目前的工程设计标准，包括气候变化（CC）允许一个相对简单和廉价的纳入CC的考虑到雨水基础设施的设计。然而，流域内的暴雨水响应高度依赖于受CC影响的其他因素，这些因素增加了设计考虑的复杂性。为了能够更全面地纳入潜在影响，并考虑到设计参数的相关不确定性，需要制定新的标准。已经为弹性基础设施开发了各种方法，这些方法包括这种复杂性，并且可以解决与预测未来相关的相对较高的不确定性。大多数方法从风险管理的角度出发，适应气候变化要求对所考虑的时期内的气候进行准确的描述，试图确定最有可能的未来规划。然后，设计依赖于准确和精确的气候预测和复杂的建模工作。然而，加拿大各地大多数小社区的能力有限，限制了综合方法的使用。这排除了许多或大多数类型和层次的知识，可以纳入规划和设计过程。即使在能力有限和不确定性相对较高的情况下，也必须做出决定，必须推进气候适应规划和基础设施设计。因此，除了定量的不确定性分析外，设计标准还应考虑由于社区利用相关专门知识和技术的能力和资源有限而造成的定性不确定性。该研究计划旨在改善雨水基础设施设计的标准和协议，考虑到利益相关者的财务和技术资源限制，这些资源可以解释一系列来源的不确定性。这些来源包括观测数据的不确定性、气候变化预测、流域模型、专家解释以及市政当局利用人力和财政资源的能力。本研究提出了一种改进的方法，规划和设计的基础设施，包括社区的投入和反馈，在设计过程中的几个阶段，使用场景分析的决策支持上下文中。通过为不确定性进行设计，允许社区设想未来的情景，随着对潜在结果的了解更有信心和更少的不确定性，可以逐步接近和改进这些情景，从而更好地实现气候变化适应。这种新颖的方法结合了自然和建筑环境的多个尺度，重点是不确定性的设计，而不是不确定性。更新后的标准考虑了气候变化的区域差异，可用于改善加拿大各地的设计标准。这将有助于改变土木工程做法，使社区参与，并发展可持续和适应气候变化的基础设施。

Current engineering design standards that incorporate climate change (CC) allow for a relatively simple and inexpensive inclusion of CC considerations into storm water infrastructure design. However, storm water responses in a watershed are highly dependent on other factors affected by CC that increase the complexity of design considerations. In order to allow for a more complete inclusion of potential impacts and an accounting for the relevant uncertainty of design parameters, new standards need to be developed. Various approaches have been developed for resilient infrastructure that includes this complexity and can address relatively high levels of uncertainty associated with predicting the future. Most methods take a risk management perspective, whereby adapting to CC requires an accurate description of climate over the time period of consideration that attempts to identify a most likely future for planning. Design then relies on accurate and precise climate predictions and complex modeling efforts. However most small communities throughout Canada have limited capacities that constrain the use of comprehensive methods. This excludes many or most types and levels of knowledge that can be incorporated into the planning and design process. Even with limited capacity and relatively high levels of uncertainty, decisions must be made, and climate adaptation planning and infrastructure design must move forward. Therefore, in addition to quantitative uncertainty analysis, design standards should consider qualitative uncertainty due to limited capacity and resources of a community to engage the relevant expertise and technologies. This research program aims to improve standards and protocols for the design of storm water infrastructure, given stakeholder limitations of financial and technical resources that can account for uncertainty from a range of sources. These sources include uncertainty from observed data, climate change projections, watershed models, expert interpretation, and the capacity of municipalities to engage human and financial resources. This research proposes a modified approach to planning and design of infrastructure that includes community input and feedback at several stages in the design process using scenario analysis in a decision support context. Climate change adaptation can be better achieved by designing for uncertainty by allowing communities to envision future scenarios that can be approached incrementally and improved as potential outcomes are known with more confidence and less uncertainty. This novel approach incorporates multiple scales of the natural and built environment with a focus on design for uncertainty, not with uncertainty. The updated standards account for regional differences in climate change and can be used to improve design standards throughout Canada. This will help transform civil engineering practices to engage communities and develop sustainable and climate change resilient infrastructure.