TRANSPORTATION OF HAZARDOUS MATERIALS: UNCERTAINTY, BEHAVIOR, AND TIME-DEPENDENCY

危险材料（hazmats）通常大量运输或储存，由于对人类和环境的潜在威胁和损害，因此总是与相当高的风险水平相关联。Lac-Mégantic列车脱轨事件（2013年）和贝鲁特爆炸事件（2020年）进一步提请世界关注危险物质相关作业的安全性。为了更好地了解现有网络，并提出自适应解决方案，以促进危险品运输和紧急响应决策，将研究三个主题：不确定性，行为和时间依赖性。 主题1：在不确定的环境中管理危险品运输。在真实的世界中，不确定性占上风。在运输中，需求、设施流程、旅行时间和事件概率在本质上都是随机的。在危险品运输规划的任何阶段忽视不确定性都可能导致风险和损失的增加。另一种特殊类型的不确定性，即由不可预见的事件造成的中断（例如，恶劣天气、劳工行动、施工、缺乏或短缺供应等），也可能显著影响系统性能。本研究将这些不确定属性嵌入到危险品运输管理中，建立一个稳健而灵活的系统，能够有效地适应不断变化的环境，从而限制相应的负面后果。 主题2：将路径选择行为转化为危险品网络设计问题。大多数决策过程都假定决策者是理性的、合作的。但这一假设并不总是正确的，特别是在处理不完整的信息或强烈的个人偏好时。承运人的行为所导致的航线选择可能会引发意想不到的风险激增，因此需要进行适当的控制。本主题将尝试将行为科学与危险品运输结合起来，将路径选择行为整合到寻求最佳网络设计的决策过程中。建议的方法可以帮助当局实现最低的环境影响，通过实施主动和被动的政策，以规范道路的使用，根据承运人的现实行为。 主题3：时变危险品网络中的网络设计和路线规划。现实世界的数据表明，交通网络参数（例如，交通流量、旅行速度、人口密度等）随一天中的时间和工作日/周末而变化。在大量可用数据的驱动下，本研究主题将研究时间依赖性对航运决策的影响，并试图通过时间依赖性政策（例如，基于时间的宵禁和/或通行费），依赖于时间的网络设计（例如，链路和节点管理）和时间相关操作（例如，路由和调度）。救援设施、消防部门和医疗单位的后勤考虑也将被整合，以提供全面的决策支持。

Often transported or stored in large volumes, hazardous materials (hazmats) are always associated with substantial levels of risks, due to the potential threats and damage to people and the environment. The Lac-Mégantic train derailment (2013) and the Beirut explosion (2020) further drew the world's attention to the safety of hazmat-related operations. Aiming to gain a better understanding of the existing networks and to propose adaptive solutions to facilitate hazmat transportation and urgent response decisions, three themes will be studied: Uncertainty, Behavior, and Time-dependency. Theme 1: Managing Hazmat Transportation in an Uncertain Environment. Uncertainties prevail in the real world. In transportation, the demands, facility processes, travel times, and incident probabilities are all stochastic in nature. Overlooking uncertainties at any stage of hazmat transportation planning may lead to progressed risk and loss. Another special type of uncertainty, disruptions caused by unforeseen events (e.g., inclement weather, labor actions, construction, lack or shortage of supplies, etc.), may also significantly impact the system performance. This study will embed these uncertain attributes into managing hazmat transportation, to establish a robust yet flexible system that can efficiently adapt to the changing environment, so to limit corresponding negative consequences. Theme 2: Incorporating Route Choice Behavior into Hazmat Network Design Problems. Most decision-making processes assume rational and cooperative decision makers. But this assumption may not always be true, especially when dealing with incomplete information or strong personal preferences. The route choices resulting from carriers' behaviors may provoke unexpected risk surges and hence need to be properly controlled. This theme will make tentative steps to link behavioral science to hazmat transportation by integrating route choice behaviors into the decision process of seeking the best network design. The proposed approaches can assist the authorities in achieving the lowest environmental impacts through imposing proactive and reactive policies to regulate the use of roads in light of carriers' realistic behaviors. Theme 3: Network Design and Route Planning in Time-Dependent Hazmat Networks. Real-world data suggest that transportation network parameters (e.g., traffic flow, travel speed, population density, etc.) vary with both time of day and weekday/weekend. Driven by the substantial data available, this research theme will examine the impact of time-dependency on shipping decisions, and attempt to mitigate the system risks through time-dependent policies (e.g., time-based curfew and/or toll), time-dependent network design (e.g., link and node management) and time-dependent operations (e.g., routing and scheduling). The logistics considerations of rescue facilities, fire departments, and medical units will also be integrated for comprehensive decision support.