Risk Assessment and Life Cycle Management of Engineering Systems

在过去的70年里，核能部门在满足加拿大的能源需求、推动经济增长和提高生活质量方面发挥了至关重要的作用。通过使经济脱碳和确保可靠和负担得起的能源的充足供应，核能再次准备在应对气候变化和能源安全这两个新出现的挑战方面发挥突出作用。为了实现这些目标，加拿大正在翻新其核电站，以便在最初的许可证期限之后长期运行，并加紧开发更小，更简单，更便宜的核反应堆，称为小型模块化反应堆（SMR），易于与清洁能源网络整合。为了确保老化反应堆和现代SMR的安全和有效运行，建议与NSERC和加拿大核工业（由核工程卓越大学网络（UNENE）代表）合作开发创新的风险评估和生命周期管理模型。拟议的研究将调查60-80年运行的工厂系统老化的不利影响，评估新出现的风险，并为评价工厂系统的服务适宜性提供技术依据。这项研究的科学核心是基于概率论，数据分析和统计决策分析方法，这些方法用于对不确定和非平稳的老化过程进行建模。这些概率模型将预测可靠性和风险，加强检查和维护，提高发电效率，并优化工厂生命周期内的投资。SMR综合风险评估模型的开发和检测技术的进步是本研究的另外两个主要创新方面。除了为该行业提供管理核资产的实用工具外，这项研究还将培养一批高技能的工程师和研究人员，以满足该行业对关键技术领域合格劳动力的需求。总之，拟议的研究将提高加拿大继续以安全和负责任的方式开发和利用核能的能力。

In the last 70 years, the nuclear sector has played a vital role in meeting Canada's energy needs, driving economic growth, and enhancing the quality of life. Nuclear energy is again poised to play a prominent role in tackling two emerging challenges, climate change and energy security, by decarbonizing the economy and ensuring an abundant supply of reliable and affordable energy. To achieve these goals, Canada is refurbishing its nuclear power plants for their long-term operation well beyond the initial licensing period, and intensifying the development of smaller, simpler, and cheaper nuclear reactors, known as Small Modular Reactors (SMRs), that will easily integrate with the clean energy network. To ensure the safe and efficient operation of aging reactors and modern SMRs, the development of innovative risk assessment and life cycle management models is proposed in partnership with NSERC and the Canadian nuclear industry represented by the University Network of Excellence in Nuclear Engineering (UNENE).The proposed research will investigate the adverse effects of aging of plant systems over 60-80 years of operation, assess emerging risks, and generate the technical basis to evaluate the fitness for service of plant systems. The scientific core of this research is based on probability theory, data analytics, and statistical decision analysis methods that are applied to model uncertain and non-stationary aging processes. These probabilistic models will predict reliability and risk, enhance inspection and maintenance, improve generation efficiency, and optimize investments over the life cycle of the plant. The development of integrated risk assessment models for SMRs and the advancement of inspection technologies are the two other major innovative aspects of this research. In addition to providing the industry with practical tools for managing nuclear assets, this research will create a pool of highly skilled engineers and researchers to meet the industry's demands for a competent workforce in critical areas of technology. In summary, the proposed research will advance Canada's ability to continue developing and utilizing nuclear power in a safe and responsible manner.