Social, ecological, and technological systems (SETS) dynamics assessment for urban resilience to extreme weather events

极端天气事件是人们体验气候变化最直接的方式。城市地区由于其地理位置、人口集中以及日益复杂和相互依存的基础设施，特别容易受到此类事件的影响。飓风多里安和卡特里娜、超级风暴桑迪、反复发生的渥太华河洪水和其他灾害的影响不仅表明已建基础设施的故障，而且也突显了机构、资源和知识系统以及城市基础设施系统的组成部分在准备和应对如此大规模的事件方面的不足。为了推进既定的理论文献并指导促进城市韧性的基础设施发展决策，现在需要一种基于证据的方法来揭示城市基础设施系统的社会、生态和技术系统(SET)和动态。这项工作的长期目标是促进弹性基础设施设计和发展的理论和理解，并改善未来城市对极端天气事件的弹性决策。为了为实现长期目标提供基本要素，这项工作的短期目标是：1)建立一个包含集合相互作用的城市系统动力学建模框架；2)确定集合动态如何有助于城市对极端天气事件的适应能力；3)应用耦合基础设施系统模型来评估相互依赖的集合对城市洪水的脆弱性；以及4)促进关于集合恢复能力的知识联合生产，并为提高城市适应能力的基础设施发展提供支持决策。拟议的工作将是跨学科工程分析的前沿，处理受极端天气事件影响的城市系统和基础设施的复杂性。这项工作将有助于推进综合城市系统动力学模型、相互依存的基础设施对城市洪灾的脆弱性评估，以及加拿大城市背景下的城市复原力和气候适应规划的参与式决策框架。这项工作的结果将是可采取行动的，以支持区域管理机构在减轻未来气候风险影响和提高应对极端天气事件的集合能力方面重新评估当前的气候适应规划和基础设施发展目标。

Extreme weather events are the most immediate way that people are experiencing climate change. Urban areas are particularly vulnerable to such events, given their location, concentration of people, and increasingly complex and interdependent infrastructures. Impacts of Hurricane Dorian and Katrina, Superstorm Sandy, repetitive Ottawa River Floods, and other disasters demonstrate not just failures in built infrastructure, but also they highlight the inadequacy of institutions, resources, and knowledge systems, also components of urban infrastructure systems, to prepare for and respond to events of this magnitude. To advance established theoretical literature and guide infrastructure development decisions promoting urban resilience, an evidence-based approach is now needed to reveal the social, ecological, and technological systems (SETS) dynamics of infrastructure systems in cities. The long-term objective of this work is to advance the theory and understanding of resilient infrastructure design and development and to improve decision-making for future urban resilience to extreme weather events. To provide the foundational elements for achieving the long-term objective, the short-term objectives of this work are: 1) to develop an urban system dynamics modeling framework encompassing SETS interactions; 2) to identify how SETS dynamics contribute to urban resilience to extreme weather events; 3) to apply a coupled infrastructure systems model to evaluate interdependent SETS vulnerabilities to urban flooding; and 4) to facilitate knowledge co-production on SETS resilience capabilities and support decision-making for infrastructure development improving urban resilience. The proposed work will be the frontier of interdisciplinary engineering analysis addressing the complexity of urban systems and infrastructure affected by extreme weather events. This work will contribute to the advancement of the integrative urban system dynamics model, interdependent infrastructure vulnerability assessment to urban flooding, and the participatory decision-making framework for urban resilience and climate adaptation planning in the context of Canadian cities. The outcome of this work will be actionable to support regional governing agencies to re-evaluate current climate adaptation planning and infrastructure development goals in terms of mitigating future climate risk impacts and improving SETS capacities to extreme weather events.