The Arctic Ocean to the Labrador Sea - Studies of the Ocean to the North and East of Canada

该提案的主题重点是北极、加拿大北极群岛和北大西洋等北部高纬度地区的气候和海洋动态，从全球变化的角度来看，其中包括短期和长期趋势、多变性、极端事件和越来越多的商业使用的海洋环境。由于通常被称为极地放大的反馈过程，北极和亚北极地区预计将经历特别大的幅度变化，以应对全球变暖。这些地区的特点已经是气候和环境变化加速。海冰的消失和大陆冰盖的融化是戏剧性的，变化的速度是前所未有的。此外，流向北大西洋和拉布拉多海的多余融水可能会干扰深海水的形成，从而影响全球海洋循环以及二氧化碳等具有气候活性的气体的吸收，对整个气候系统产生反馈作用。此外，由于大气和海洋变暖，冰川冰块加速消融，可能导致全球海平面显著上升。将北极冰、格陵兰冰盖、海洋和大气联系起来的反馈过程仍然没有从观测中完全记录下来，也没有完全量化，因为最先进的气候模型仍然无法再现观测到的北极冰减少的工具趋势。此外，高纬度气候变化可能不是线性的，系统可能会达到阈值，超过这个阈值，任何强迫的微小变化都可能导致放大的响应。在区域一级，这些变化影响当地的天气和海洋生态系统(包括通过海洋酸化的变化)，直接影响到北部和东部沿海社区的生计。在这方面，预测北极-亚北极系统的演变是一项重要的挑战。因此，这项提案的目的将是利用历史数据分析和高到极高分辨率的数值模拟来审查CAA、巴芬湾和拉布拉多海等区域海洋和海冰过去的变化，并审查与这些变化有关的关键的潜在物理和动力过程。这项提议的长期目标将是努力了解加拿大周围的水域和海冰未来将如何演变(结合现在和过去的行为)，并向关心这类信息的许多利益攸关方提供这一信息。将使用海洋/海冰耦合模型进行建模，该模型还包括潮汐、冰山和生物地球化学模块。这种模式将以这样一种方式进行，以便与加拿大的其他团体(特别是在联邦政府内部)以及在国际上直接合作。

The thematic focus of the proposal is climate and ocean dynamics at high northern latitudes, including the Arctic, Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA) and the North Atlantic Ocean, in a global change perspective that includes short- to long term trends, variability, extreme events and a marine environment that is being used more and more commercially. The Arctic and subarctic regions are expected to experience particularly large amplitude changes in response to global warming due to feedback processes often referred to as polar amplification. These regions are already characterized by an acceleration of climatic and environmental change. Loss of sea ice and melting of continental ice caps are dramatic and the rate of change unprecedented. Moreover, the excess meltwater routed towards the North Atlantic and Labrador Sea may interfere with the formation of deep ocean water, thus affecting the global ocean circulation as well as the take-up of climatically active gases such as CO2, feeding back on the overall climate system. Furthermore, the accelerated loss of the glacial ice mass in response to atmospheric and oceanic warming may lead to a significant increase in global sea level. The feedback processes that link the Arctic ice, the Greenland Ice Sheet, the ocean and atmosphere remain incompletely documented from observations and are imperfectly quantified as state-of-the-art climate models still fail to reproduce observed instrumental trends of Arctic ice decline. Moreover, high latitude climate change may not be linear and the system might reach thresholds beyond which small change in any forcing can result in amplified response. On a regional level, these changes affect local weather and marine ecosystems (including through changes in ocean acidification), with direct bearing on the livelihood of Northern and east coast communities. In this context forecasting the evolution of the Arctic-subarctic system is an important challenge. Thus this proposal will aim to use historical data analysis and high to very high resolution numerical modelling to examine past changes in the ocean and sea-ice in regions such as the CAA, Baffin Bay and the Labrador Sea, examining key underlying physical and dynamical processes associated with these changes. The long term goal of this proposal will be to work towards understanding how the waters and sea-ice around Canada will evolve in the future (in the context of present and past behavior), and to provide that information to the many stakeholders concerned with such information. Modelling will be carried out using a coupled ocean/sea ice model that also includes modules for the tides, icebergs, and biogeochemistry. This modelling will be carried out in such a way to allow direct collaboration with other groups in Canada (especially within the federal government), as well as internationally.