Capacity of conifer populations for climate adaptation

气候变化正在影响全球许多树种的健康，破坏种群对当地气候的适应，并增加干旱，昆虫和野火造成的死亡率。对于每一代都在经历高速率环境变化的长寿森林树木来说，情况尤其如此。两个世纪以来，森林科学家一直在研究树木种群对历史气候的适应，通过普通的花园实验。在过去的二十年里，我一直在研究针叶树对气候的适应性，首先是表型方法，后来是群体基因组工具。我的长期研究目标是了解针叶树种群的进化生态学，人口统计学历史和当地适应性，并利用这种理解为保护，重新造林和恢复决策提供信息。本研究的目的是预测针叶树种群的能力，以适应或容忍迅速变化的气候，利用表型，基因组和模拟方法。 岭缘种群的适应潜力：我的研究小组以前的研究已经描述了气候和表型或基因型之间的关系，从广泛的地理区域的几个针叶树种的种群，但没有包括岭缘种群是重要的气候变化的反应。我们将从整个北美西部的松扭叶松种群的样本，强调在或附近的范围边缘的人口，和基因型，他们以前确定的标记与气候或气候相关的性状。将建立模型来预测这些人口适应新气候的能力。干旱适应：温带针叶树一般耐旱哈代，但干旱相关的死亡率在整个北美西部增加。我们将分析花旗松耐旱性的群体变异，并确定与干旱相关的基因组标记。新的实验将描述落叶松和崖柏种群的干旱反应。最后，将比较孟山都和L. menziesii对干旱反应的基因表达可塑性。[咒语] 适应能力和辅助基因流动：我们需要从描述适应状态转向预测应对气候变化的适应潜力。扭叶松种群之间的适应性或适应不良基因流动的机会将根据生殖物候、花粉运输距离和风模式的重叠程度进行建模。扭叶松和花旗松的基因组和表型数据集将用于参数化种群模拟模型，并评估不同情景下的适应能力。最后，表型和基因组数据集将用于评估物种内当地适应的主要气候驱动因素是否是那些定义几个物种的物种气候生态位的因素。

Climate change is affecting the health of many tree species globally, disrupting adaptation of populations to local climates, and increasing mortality due to drought, insects and wildfire. This is particularly the case for long-lived forest trees that are experiencing high rates of environmental change per generation. For two centuries, forest scientists have been studying the adaptation of tree populations to historic climates through common garden experiments. For the past two decades, I have been studying local adaptation of conifers to climate, first with phenotypic approaches and later with population genomic tools. My long-term research objective is to understand the evolutionary ecology, demographic history, and local adaptation of conifer populations, and to use that understanding to inform conservation, reforestation and restoration decisions. The goal of this research is to predict the capacity of conifer populations to adapt to or tolerate rapidly changing climates using phenotypic, genomic and simulation approaches. Adaptive potential of range margin populations: My research group's previous studies have characterized relationships between climate and phenotypes or genotypes of populations from broad geographic areas for several conifer species, but have not included range margin populations that are important for climate change responses. We will sample populations of Pinus contorta from throughout western North America, emphasizing populations at or near range margins, and genotype them for previously identified markers associated with climate or climate-related traits. Models will be constructed to predict the capacity of these populations to adapt to new climates. Drought adaptation: Temperate conifers are generally drought hardy, yet drought-related mortality is increasing across western North America. We will analyze population variation in Pseudotsuga menziesii drought tolerance and identify genomic markers associated with drought. New experiments will characterize drought responses of populations of Larix occidentalis and Thuja plicata. Finally, gene expression plasticity in response to drought will be compared in P. menziesii and L. occidentalis. Capacity for adaptation and assisted gene flow: We need to move from characterizing adaptive state to predicting adaptive potential in response to climate change. The opportunity for adaptive or maladaptive gene flow among populations of Pinus contorta will be modelled based on the extent of overlap in reproductive phenology, pollen transport distance, and wind patterns. Genomic and phenotypic datasets for Pinus contorta and Pseudotsuga menziesii will be used to parameterize population simulation models and evaluate the capacity for adaptation under different scenarios. Finally, phenotypic and genomic datasets will be used to assess whether the major climatic drivers of local adaptation within species are those that define species climatic niches for several species.