Predicting impacts of cumulative threats to inform conservation decisions under global change

在全球范围内，物种和生态系统正经历着土地利用变化、开发和气候变化带来的前所未有的压力。在加拿大，许多物种的命运岌岌可危。这些物种包括标志性的南方虎鲸和红鲑鱼，以及数百种鲜为人知的物种。根据《濒危物种法》（species at Risk Act），濒危物种的数量还在增加，因此迫切需要了解和预测累积威胁的影响，并利用这些预测来制定保护管理和气候适应行动，以减轻这些威胁。该总干事将开展必要的科学研究，以了解多种人为压力对生物多样性的累积和相互影响，然后利用这些信息制定和测试有效和及时的保护管理和气候适应行动。不列颠哥伦比亚省沿海花旗松（CDF）生物气候带是研究累积影响的模式系统。这是一个濒临灭绝但非常多样化的地区，已迅速转化为人类使用（bb60 %）并保留了250年)，加里橡树生态系统的10%以下。该地区的物种多样性和濒危物种数量是加拿大最高的，并且受到许多人为影响，从土地利用变化到顶级捕食者（美洲狮和狼）的减少以及外来物种的入侵。气候变化正在整个地区施加压力，但目前对物种和生态系统的潜在影响知之甚少，也不知道气候变化将如何与其他威胁过程相互作用。该报告填补了一个关键的知识空白，并将发现物种对气候变化脆弱性的机制，火灾在维持生态系统恢复力方面的作用，以及顶级捕食者消失导致的营养级联的影响。这项研究计划是建立在创新的实地实验和领先的生态建模和统计技术相结合的基础上。我将用这些方法培训一个庞大的HQP团队，并将继续我的记录，为HQP提供他们在保护科学事业中所需要的技能，包括问题形成、批判性思维、卓越的分析和沟通技巧。这将促进我们对累积效应和多重压力的理解，并有助于建立创新的保护决策科学工具，以恢复全球变化下的物种和生态系统。最后，这项研究使加拿大在知识和智力能力方面处于领先地位，以开发和应用保护管理和气候适应行动，以确保我们的物种和生态系统世世代代的恢复能力。

Globally, species and ecosystems are experiencing unprecedented pressure from land use change, exploitation and climate change. Here in Canada, the fate of many species hangs in the balance. These species include iconic southern resident killer whales and sockeye salmon as well as hundreds of less known species. With >600 species listed under the Species at Risk Act and counting, there is an urgent need to understand and predict the impact of cumulative threats and use these predictions to develop conservation management and climate adaptation actions to mitigate these threats. This DG, will undertake the science needed to understand the cumulative and interacting impacts of multiple anthropogenic pressures on biodiversity and will then use this information to develop and test effective and timely conservation management and climate adaptation actions. The Coastal Douglas Fir (CDF) bioclimatic zone in British Columbia is a model system to examine cumulative impacts. It is an endangered but extraordinarily diverse region that has been rapidly converted to human use (>60%) and retains 250 years), and <10% of Garry oak ecosystems. The diversity of species and number of Species at Risk within the region is among the highest in Canada and has been subject to a multitude of anthropogenic impacts from land use change to loss of top predators (cougars and wolves) and invasion by exotic species. Climate change is now exerting pressure across the entire region with little currently known about potential impacts on species and ecosystems or how climate change will interact with other threatening processes. This DG fills a critical knowledge gap and will discover the mechanisms underpinning species vulnerability to climate change, role of fire in maintaining ecosystem resilience, and the impact of trophic cascades resulting from the loss of top predators. This research program is built on a combination of innovative field experiments and leading-edge ecological modeling and statistical techniques. I will train a large team of HQP in these methods and will continue my track record of providing HQP with sought after skills for their careers in conservation science including problem formation, critical thinking, and exceptional analytical and communication skills. It will advance our understanding of cumulative effects and multiple pressures and contribute to building innovative conservation decision science tools to recover species and ecosystem under global change. Finally, this research places Canada at the leading edge of knowledge and intellectual capacity to develop and apply conservation management and climate adaptation actions to ensure the resilience of our species and ecosystems for generations to come.