Development of a customized pest prediction system for Prince Edward Island

昆虫的发育通常与温度有关，随着温度的升高，昆虫的爆发可能会变得更加普遍。农业害虫包括杂草、植物病害（真菌、细菌和病毒）、啮齿动物和线虫，以及以植物为食的昆虫和螨虫，据估计，它们对农业总产量的损害高达三分之一。这对爱德华王子岛来说尤其如此，近年来，由于气候条件的变化，岛上的农业害虫（如线虫）在人口和地理分布方面都有显著增长。面对未来的气候变化，更好地了解有害生物的入侵不仅对物种保护具有很高的价值；对于保护自然资源和依赖这些资源的当地社区来说，这也是至关重要的。因此，本项目旨在通过与PEI农业和土地部（DAL）的合作，为爱德华王子岛（PEI）开发定制的害虫预测系统。通过使用最新的高分辨率季节性气候数据和长期气候变化情景，这将有助于弥合PEI害虫预测方面的差距。该项目的研究成果可以为PEI DAL的研究科学家和PEI的当地农民提供基于科学的信息，以支持他们目前的有害生物管理实践，并帮助他们制定针对未来气候变化的长期适应措施。

Insect development is often tied to temperature and its outbreaks may become more prevalent as temperatures increase. Pests in agriculture can include weeds, plant diseases (fungi, bacteria, and viruses), rodents, and nematodes, as well as plant-feeding insects and mites, and are estimated to damage up to one-third of overall agricultural productivity. This is especially true for Prince Edward Island, where the agricultural pests (e.g., wireworm) have shown a significant growth in both population and geographical distributions in recent years, due to the changing climatic conditions. A better understanding of pest incursion in the face of future climate change is not only highly valuable for species conservation; it can also be paramount for the preservation of natural resources and for local communities that rely on those resources. Therefore, this project aims to develop a customized pest prediction system for Prince Edward Island (PEI) through the partnership with the PEI Department of Agriculture and Land (DAL). This will help bridge the gap in pest prediction in PEI by using the latest high-resolution seasonal climate data and long-term climate change scenarios. The results from this project can provide the research scientists in PEI DAL and local farmers in PEI with science-based information to support their current pest management practices and to help them develop long-term adaptation measures for future climate change.