An Integrated Assessment of Hydroclimate Risks for Prince Edward Island

现在有压倒性的证据表明，加拿大的气候变化和极端天气事件正在增加，这可能会给政府、企业和最终所有加拿大人带来不断增加的成本。对于爱德华王子岛(PEI)来说尤其如此，因为我们每天都能在更极端的天气事件、海平面上升和沿海洪水中看到证据。在我们为减少温室气体排放尽自己的一份力的同时，我们真的需要考虑如何适应未来几年不断变化的气候。这要求我们做出明智的适应性决策，这依赖于对未来气候变化对我们的社区、基础设施、流域和生态系统的潜在影响的充分了解。因此，该项目的主要目标是通过环境、水和气候变化部与环境、水和气候变化部之间的合作，对整个环境、水和气候变化部的短期和长期气候和水文风险进行全面评估。特别是，将为整个PEI岛开发空间分辨率为1公里的高分辨率气候情景；将通过开发新的洪水预测模型来评估整个PEI地区在暴雨下的洪水风险；将通过开发水气候整体模拟框架来评估未来气候变化对所有PEI流域的水资源、水质和土壤侵蚀的影响。该项目的成果最终将通过开发一个基于地理信息系统和万维网的水文气候数据门户网站与公众分享。该项目的成果将为实施PEI气候变化行动计划提供科学依据。

There is now overwhelming evidence that climate change and extreme weather events are on the rise in Canada, which can bring ever-increasing costs to governments, businesses, and ultimately all Canadians. This is particularly true for Prince Edward Island (PEI) as every day we see the evidence in more extreme weather events, rising sea levels, and coastal flooding. While we are doing our part to reduce greenhouse gas emissions,we really need to think about how to adapt to the changing climate in the coming years. This requires us to make informed adaptative decisions which relies on a full understanding of the potential impacts of future climate change on our communities, infrastructures, watersheds, and ecosystems. Therefore, the main objective of this project is to carry out a comprehensive assessment of short-term and long-term climate and hydrologic risks across PEI through a partnership between UPEI Climate Research Lab and PEI Department of Environment, Water and Climate Change. In particular, high-resolution climate scenarios with a spatial resolution of 1km will be developed for the entire island of PEI; flooding risks under heavy rainfalls across PEI will be evaluated through the development of a new flood prediction model; and impacts of future climate change on water resources, water quality, and soil erosion for all PEI watersheds will be assessed through the development of an hydroclimate ensemble modeling framework. The results from this project will be eventually shared with the public through the development of a GIS- and web-based hydroclimate data portal. The outcomes from this project will provide a scientific basis for implementing the PEI Climate Change Action Plan.