Biodiversity and Landscape Modeling

了解自然界或给定景观中有多少物种，并了解它们如何在生态系统中聚集，可以说是生态学中最重要的问题之一。这些知识对于预测生态系统对自然和人为干扰的反应至关重要，并为生物多样性保护和管理的关键决策提供信息。尽管已经提出了许多方法来统计和估计景观中物种的数量，但对它们的表现几乎没有共识。此外，目前关于现实世界多样性变化的数据表明，我们需要了解维持或驱动生物多样性变化的机制。我将在CRC更新的背景下通过创新研究来解决这些知识空白。基于我在这一领域的现有优势和正在进行的工作，我的目标是发展方法和理论，以改进物种多样性的估计，综合多样性模式，并测试关于初级生物多样性机制的假设。具体来说，我将讨论四个相互关联的研究组成部分，这些组成部分对理解生物多样性模式及其发展和维持方式至关重要。(1)建立“生物多样性演算”，用于测量和综合生物多样性格局；(2)测试维持物种组合的生态过程，特别关注植物-土壤反馈对植物物种多样性的作用；(3)预测气候和土地利用变化对生物多样性的影响；(4)应用前沿成果支持生态系统的可持续管理，并为加拿大和其他国家的创新土地利用政策提供信息。这项研究涉及理论发展、概念综合、经验数据分析和实地试验，将以两个主要的长期森林清查样地网络为基础：全球ForestGEO网络和加拿大、美国和欧洲维持的长期国家森林清查样地网络。该研究将为生物多样性维持机制提供新的认识，并将为解释全球森林生物多样性在多个空间尺度上的变化提供证据。开发的可交付的概念、模型、方法和综合将提高我们理解和预测气候和土地利用变化对森林动态和生态功能的影响的能力，以指导更好地保护和管理加拿大和其他地方的生物多样性。

Knowing how many species are in nature or a given landscape and understanding how they are assembled in ecosystems are arguably among the most important questions in ecology. This knowledge is essential for predicting ecosystem responses to natural and anthropogenic disturbances and informs critical decisions about biodiversity conservation and management. Although numerous methods have been proposed to tally and estimate the number of species in landscapes, there is little consensus about their performance. Also, current data about real world diversity change suggests that we have much to learn about mechanisms that maintain or drive changes in biodiversity. I will address these knowledge gaps through innovative research in the context of a CRC renewal. Building on my existing strengths and ongoing work in this field, I aim to develop methods and theory to improve for estimation of species diversity, to synthesize diversity patterns, and to test hypotheses about primary biodiversity mechanisms. Specifically, I will address four interrelated research components critical to understanding biodiversity patterns and how they develop and are maintained. These are as follows: (1) Develop a `Calculus of Biodiversity' for measuring and synthesizing biodiversity patterns; (2) Test ecological processes that maintain species assemblages, with special interest in testing the role of plant-soil feedback on plant species diversity; (3) Predict impact of climate and land use change on biodiversity; and (4) Apply cutting-edge results to support sustainable management of ecosystems and to inform innovative land use policies in Canada and other countries. This research, involving theoretical development, conceptual synthesis, empirical data analysis and field experiments, will be based on two primary networks of long-term forest inventory plots: the global ForestGEO network and the network of long-term national forest inventory plots maintained in Canada, the USA and Europe. This research will contribute new knowledge about mechanisms of biodiversity maintenance and will provide evidence to interpret global biodiversity change in forests across several spatial scales. The deliverable concepts, models, methods and syntheses developed will enhance our ability to understand and predict the impact of changes in climate and land-use on forest dynamics and ecological function to guide for better conservation and management of biodiversity in Canada and elsewhere.