不确定条件下船舶通航风险的评价方法和演化机理研究

随着我国航运的进一步发展，通航环境日益复杂，对船舶通航风险的评价和预测技术提出了更高的要求。不确定性问题是评价和预测船舶通航风险的核心技术难题，主要体现为水上交通系统认知的不确定性、风险影响因子数据缺失的不确定性以及船舶通航风险演化态势的不确定性。本研究将针对水路交通运输中的各种不确定性问题，通过证据推理-贝叶斯网络模型阐明水上交通系统中人、船、环境、管理等因素与通航风险的动态耦合关系，形成不确定条件下的评价方法体系；通过模糊逻辑等不确定性度量方法实现船舶通航风险系统动力学的参数表征，探索船舶通航风险的演化机理；通过建立船舶通航风险等级的评价指标体系，运用TOPSIS的方法进行风险控制方案的成本效益分析，实现船舶通航风险的决策支持。

The national shipping industry has been developing rapidly while the navigational environment becomes increasingly complex that more advanced approaches for estimation and prediction of navigational risk are urgently needed. The key techniques for navigational risk assessment involve the treatment of uncertainties which may be induced by one-sided recognition, lack of data or unpredictable tendency. This study will deal with these uncertainties involved in waterway transportation system by evidential reasoning-Bayesian Network for navigational risk modeling considering human, vessel, environment and management, fuzzy logic based system dynamics model for evolution mechanism study of navigational risk and TOPSIS based cost-benefit analysis for decision support of navigational risk management.