时间多尺度信息下的群体决策理论及其应用研究

经济社会的快速发展为决策提供了瞬息万变的海量信息，人们对客观事物的认识随着时间的递进而不断演化，备选方案的比较过程及专家的偏好信息均为时间的函数，时间尺度不同，决策信息形式不同，决策的结果可能不同。本项目深入分析决策过程和信息的时间尺度，研究时间多尺度信息下的群体决策理论及其应用，主要有（1）备选方案两两比较过程的时间多尺度模型研究，决策信息的产生过程即为精细化的时间序列，将提出判断信息的满意一致性新准则，建立基于顺序子矩阵的群体决策模型及算法。（2）群体决策共识过程的粒子群优化算法研究，反复讨论达成共识的群体决策过程模拟为不断迭代的目标优化过程，将提出基于多种决策信息粒的群体决策模型。（3）基于不同时间尺度社会网络信息的群体决策问题研究，将建立时间多尺度的社会网络信息分析方法，为政府和企业科学决策与预测提供解决方案。研究成果将从时间尺度效应上为群体决策理论与方法提供新思想。

The rapid economic and social development has provided a rapidly changing mass of data for decision-making. The understanding of objective things evolves over times. The comparing process of alternatives and the preference information are the functions with respect to time. Different time scales may lead to different decision information, then to different decision results. ..In this project, the time scales of decision process and information are analyzed deeply. The theory of group decision making and its applications are investigated under multiple time scales. The main contents are given as follows. (1) The time series modelling of pairwise comparison of alternatives is studied. The process of giving decision information is considered to be the time series under a small scale. The new standard of acceptable judgement information will be provided. The group decision making model and algorithm will be constructed in virtue of the leading principal submatrices. (2) The particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm for the consensus in group decision making is investigated. The group decision making with repeatedly discusses for reaching consensus is simulated as a goal optimization under an iterative process. The group decision making models will be provided using various information particles. (3) The group decision making problems with social network information under different time scales are addressed. The methods for social network analysis will be given according to social network information under multiple time scales. The solutions for scientific decision-making and forecasting of government and business problems are provided. ..The research results will provide new ideas and new concepts for decision theory and methodology by considering the time effects.