Climate change induced socio-economic tipping points: review and stakeholder consultation for policy relevant research
Climate change induced socio-economic tipping points: review and stakeholder consultation for policy relevant research
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气候变化引发的社会经济临界点：政策相关研究的审查和利益相关者咨询
DOI：
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发表时间：
2020
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
F. Bosello
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Kees C. H. van Ginkel;W. Botzen;M. Haasnoot;G. Bachner;K. Steininger;J. Hinkel;P. Watkiss;E. Boere;A. Jeuken;Elisa Sainz de Murieta;F. Bosello
临界点已成为气候变化研究的一个关键概念，表明生物物理系统的突变点以及适应和缓解策略的变革。然而，社会经济系统中潜在的临界点尚未得到充分探索，尽管它们可能与政策高度相关。本文描述了气候变化引起的社会经济临界点（SETP）的特征，以指导未来的 SETPS 研究，为气候政策提供信息。我们回顾了现有文献，创建了一个临界点类型学，并得出了以下 SETP 定义：气候变化引起的社会经济系统的突然变化，进入一种新的、根本不同的状态。通过利益相关者咨询，我们确定了 22 个与欧洲政策相关的候选 SETP 示例。对其中三个进行了更详细的描述，以确定其临界点特征（稳定状态、机制和突然变化）：冬季运动旅游业的崩溃、农田废弃和海平面上升引起的移民。我们发现利益相关者的看法在描述 SETP 时发挥着重要作用。由于与社会经济因素之间复杂的相互作用，气候驱动因素的作用很难与其他驱动因素区分开来。在某些情况下，导致临界点的是变化的速度而不是变化的幅度。最清晰的 SETP 是在小系统规模上发现的。在国家到大陆范围内，SETP 不太明显，因为它们很难与其相关的经济替代效应和政策反应分开。一些拟议的适应措施具有如此大的变革性，以至于它们的实施可以被视为“应对气候变化”方面的 SETP。未来的研究可以集中于使用程式化模型识别和影响临界点、超过利益相关者定义的 RCP/SSP 空间中的关键阈值以及新系统状态的宏观经济影响。
Tipping points have become a key concept in research on climate change, indicating points of abrupt transition in biophysical systems as well as transformative changes in adaptation and mitigation strategies. However, the potential existence of tipping points in socio-economic systems has remained underexplored, whereas they might be highly policy relevant. This paper describes characteristics of climate change induced socio-economic tipping points (SETPs) to guide future research on SETPS to inform climate policy. We review existing literature to create a tipping point typology and to derive the following SETP definition: a climate change induced, abrupt change of a socio-economic system, into a new, fundamentally different state. Through stakeholder consultation, we identify 22 candidate SETP examples with policy relevance for Europe. Three of these are described in higher detail to identify their tipping point characteristics (stable states, mechanisms and abrupt change): the collapse of winter sports tourism, farmland abandonment and sea-level rise-induced migration. We find that stakeholder perceptions play an important role in describing SETPs. The role of climate drivers is difficult to isolate from other drivers because of complex interplays with socio-economic factors. In some cases, the rate of change rather than the magnitude of change causes a tipping point. The clearest SETPs are found on small system scales. On a national to continental scale, SETPs are less obvious because they are difficult to separate from their associated economic substitution effects and policy response. Some proposed adaptation measures are so transformative that their implementations can be considered an SETP in terms of ‘response to climate change’. Future research can focus on identification and impact analysis of tipping points using stylized models, on the exceedance of stakeholder-defined critical thresholds in the RCP/SSP space and on the macro-economic impacts of new system states.
影响因子：
30.7
作者：
Aerts, J. C. J. H.;Botzen, W. J.;Kunreuther, H.
通讯作者：
Kunreuther, H.
影响因子：
30.7
作者：
Mercure, J. -F.;Pollitt, H.;Knobloch, F.
通讯作者：
Knobloch, F.