Shipbuilding capacity optimization using shipbuilding demand forecasting model
Shipbuilding capacity optimization using shipbuilding demand forecasting model
复制标题
利用造船需求预测模型优化造船能力
DOI：
10.1007/s00773-021-00852-8
复制
发表时间：
2021
影响因子：
2.6
通讯作者：
Hirata Noritaka
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Wada Yujiro;Hamada Kunihiro;Hirata Noritaka
造船业受到需求波动的严重影响。目前，它面临着激烈的全球竞争和危机，因为供求之间的不平衡。这种供需不平衡是由造船能力过剩造成的。经济合作与发展组织已考虑根据需求预测调整造船能力，以减少不平衡。另一方面，造船需求预测是一个复杂的问题，因为需求受到造船能力调整的间接影响。因此，在需求预测的基础上，研究建造能力调整对未来船舶需求的影响对于造船业的可持续发展至关重要。在这项研究中，造船能力调整被认为是使用一个建议的模拟系统的基础上的需求预测模型。此外，系统动力学模型的先前研究的改进，通过开发一个船舶价格预测模型评估造船能力调整的情况。我们使用所提出的需求预测模型和系统进行模拟，以确认所提出的模型和系统的有效性。此外，几个造船能力调整方案进行了讨论，使用该系统。
The shipbuilding industry has been drastically affected by demand fluctuations. Currently, it faces intense global competition and a crisis because of an imbalance between supply and demand. This imbalance of supply and demand is caused by an excess of shipbuilding capacity. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development has considered adjusting the shipbuilding capacity to reduce the imbalance based on the demand forecast. On the other hand, demand forecast of shipbuilding is a complex issue because the demand is influenced indirectly by adjustments in shipbuilding capacity. Therefore, it is important to examine the influence of construction capacity adjustments on the future demand of ships based on demand forecasting for the sustainable growth of the shipbuilding industry. In this study, shipbuilding capacity adjustment is considered using a proposed simulation system based on a demand-forecasting model. Additionally, the system dynamics model of a previous study is improved by developing a ship price-prediction model for evaluating the shipbuilding capacity-adjustment scenario. We conduct simulations using the proposed demand-forecasting model and system to confirm the effectiveness of the proposed model and system. Furthermore, several shipbuilding capacity-adjustment scenarios are discussed using the proposed system.
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DOI：
10.1080/03088839300000014
发表时间：
1993
期刊：
影响因子：
--
作者：
D. Jin
通讯作者：
D. Jin
影响因子：
8.5
作者：
K. Nielsen;Niels Erik Kristensen;E. Bastiansen;Peter Skytte
通讯作者：
Peter Skytte
影响因子：
3.5
作者：
Juneseuk Shin;Young
通讯作者：
Young
影响因子：
2.6
作者：
Hiekata, Kazuo;Wanaka, Shinnosuke;Moser, Bryan
通讯作者：
Moser, Bryan