COVID-19: Does the infectious inoculum dose-response relationship contribute to understanding heterogeneity in disease severity and transmission dynamics?
COVID-19: Does the infectious inoculum dose-response relationship contribute to understanding heterogeneity in disease severity and transmission dynamics?
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DOI：
10.1016/j.mehy.2020.110431
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发表时间：
2021-01
影响因子：
4.7
通讯作者：
Assefa Y
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Van Damme W;Dahake R;van de Pas R;Vanham G;Assefa Y
SARS-CoV-2 传播速度和强度的变化以及由此导致的 COVID-19 疾病的严重程度仍不完全清楚。我们假设 COVID-19 存在剂量反应关系，并且“初始接种物中的病毒剂量”是理解 COVID-19 中几个未完全解释的观察结果的重要缺失环节，作为传播动力学和疾病严重程度的因素。我们假设：（1）接种物中的病毒剂量与疾病的严重程度有关，（2）疾病的严重程度与传播潜力有关，（3）在某些情况下，严重病例链可能会形成严重的局部暴发和大规模密集流行。来自其他传染病的大量证据证实了这一假设，最近来自 COVID-19 的证据也表明了这一点。我们提出了验证假设的研究途径。如果得到证实，我们的假设可以加强在各种情况下决定优先遏制措施的科学基础，特别是避免超级传播事件的重要性和大规模掩盖的好处。
The variation in the speed and intensity of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and severity of the resulting COVID-19 disease are still imperfectly understood. We postulate a dose-response relationship in COVID-19, and that “the dose of virus in the initial inoculum” is an important missing link in understanding several incompletely explained observations in COVID-19 as a factor in transmission dynamics and severity of disease. We hypothesize that: (1) Viral dose in inoculum is related to severity of disease, (2) Severity of disease is related to transmission potential, and (3) In certain contexts, chains of severe cases can build up to severe local outbreaks, and large-scale intensive epidemics. Considerable evidence from other infectious diseases substantiates this hypothesis and recent evidence from COVID-19 points in the same direction. We suggest research avenues to validate the hypothesis. If proven, our hypothesis could strengthen the scientific basis for deciding priority containment measures in various contexts in particular the importance of avoiding super-spreading events and the benefits of mass masking.
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