Long-term exposure to air-pollution and COVID-19 mortality in England: A hierarchical spatial analysis.
Long-term exposure to air-pollution and COVID-19 mortality in England: A hierarchical spatial analysis.
复制标题
DOI：
10.1016/j.envint.2020.106316
复制
发表时间：
2021-01
影响因子：
11.8
通讯作者：
Blangiardo M
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Konstantinoudis G;Padellini T;Bennett J;Davies B;Ezzati M;Blangiardo M
近期研究表明，长期暴露于空气污染与新冠病毒（COVID - 19）死亡率之间存在关联。然而，由于这些研究基于大空间单元的生态学设计，它们忽略了强烈的局部空气污染模式，并可能导致混杂因素调整不充分。我们以高地理分辨率研究了长期暴露于二氧化氮（NO₂）和细颗粒物（PM2.5）对英国新冠病毒死亡率的影响。在这项针对英国的全国性横断面研究中，我们纳入了截至2020年6月30日下层超级输出区域层面（n = 32844个小区域）的38573例新冠病毒死亡病例。我们从污染气候图中获取了2014 - 2018年期间二氧化氮和细颗粒物的平均浓度。我们使用贝叶斯分层模型在对一系列混杂因素和空间自相关进行调整的同时，量化空气污染的影响。在对混杂因素和空间自相关进行调整后，我们发现二氧化氮每增加1微克/立方米，新冠病毒死亡风险增加0.5%（95%可信区间：-0.2%，1.2%）；细颗粒物每增加1微克/立方米，新冠病毒死亡风险增加1.4%（95%可信区间：-2.1%，5.1%）。这分别对应着正向效应的后验概率为0.93和0.78。下层超级输出区域层面的空间相对风险呈现出强烈的模式，不同污染物的情况相似。这可能反映了疫情第一波期间疾病的传播情况。我们的研究提供了一些长期暴露于二氧化氮对新冠病毒死亡率有影响的证据，而细颗粒物的影响则更不确定。
Recent studies suggested a link between long-term exposure to air-pollution and COVID-19 mortality. However, due to their ecological design based on large spatial units, they neglect the strong localised air-pollution patterns, and potentially lead to inadequate confounding adjustment. We investigated the effect of long-term exposure to NO2 and PM2.5 on COVID-19 mortality in England using high geographical resolution. In this nationwide cross-sectional study in England, we included 38,573 COVID-19 deaths up to June 30, 2020 at the Lower Layer Super Output Area level (n = 32,844 small areas). We retrieved averaged NO2 and PM2.5 concentration during 2014–2018 from the Pollution Climate Mapping. We used Bayesian hierarchical models to quantify the effect of air-pollution while adjusting for a series of confounding and spatial autocorrelation. We find a 0.5% (95% credible interval: −0.2%, 1.2%) and 1.4% (95% CrI: −2.1%, 5.1%) increase in COVID-19 mortality risk for every 1 μg/m3 increase in NO2 and PM2.5 respectively, after adjusting for confounding and spatial autocorrelation. This corresponds to a posterior probability of a positive effect equal to 0.93 and 0.78 respectively. The spatial relative risk at LSOA level revealed strong patterns, similar for the different pollutants. This potentially captures the spread of the disease during the first wave of the epidemic. Our study provides some evidence of an effect of long-term NO2 exposure on COVID-19 mortality, while the effect of PM2.5 remains more uncertain.
登录
查看更多内容
影响因子：
11.4
作者：
Di, Qian;Amini, Heresh;Schwartz, Joel
通讯作者：
Schwartz, Joel
影响因子：
5.1
作者：
Balti, Eric V.;Echouffo-Tcheugui, Justin B.;Kengne, Andre P.
通讯作者：
Kengne, Andre P.
影响因子：
1
作者：
Malbos, Eric;Burgess, George H.;Lancon, Christophe
通讯作者：
Lancon, Christophe
影响因子：
5.7
作者：
Simpson, Daniel;Rue, Havard;Sorbye, Sigrunn H.
通讯作者：
Sorbye, Sigrunn H.
影响因子：
8.9
作者：
Conticini, Edoardo;Frediani, Bruno;Caro, Dario
通讯作者：
Caro, Dario