The emperor penguin - Vulnerable to projected rates of warming and sea ice loss
The emperor penguin - Vulnerable to projected rates of warming and sea ice loss
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帝企鹅 - 容易受到预计的变暖速度和海冰消失的影响
DOI：
10.1016/j.biocon.2019.108216
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发表时间：
2020
影响因子：
5.9
通讯作者：
Chown, Steven L.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Trathan, Philip N.;Wienecke, Barbara;Barbraud, Christophe;Jenouvrier, Stéphanie;Kooyman, Gerald;Le Bohec, Céline;Ainley, David G.;Ancel, André;Zitterbart, Daniel P.;Chown, Steven L.
我们认为，需要改善生态气候变化预测，重要的是，如何将长期预测与保护。作为一个例子，我们讨论了一个物种，帝企鹅，Aptenodytes forsteri有效管理的必要性。该物种在鸟类中是独一无二的，因为它的繁殖习性严重依赖于季节性坚冰。在这里，我们回顾了它对正在发生的和预计的气候变化的脆弱性，因为海冰容易受到风和温度变化的影响。我们认为，公布的预测未来帝企鹅的人口状况，以应对不断变化的环境。此外，我们评估了该物种目前的IUCN红色名录状态，并建议将其状态改为易危，基于不同的建模预测，即本世纪人口减少≥50%，以及该物种的具体特征。我们的结论是，目前的保护措施是不够的，以保护物种在未来的预测方案。只有减少人为温室气体排放才能减少风况改变、气温上升和海冰融化对帝企鹅的威胁;在此之前，有必要采取其他保护行动，包括加强繁殖地和觅食地的空间保护。在其整个范围内指定大规模的海洋空间保护将有利于该物种，特别是在很有可能成为未来气候变化避难所的地区。我们还建议《南极条约》将帝企鹅列为南极特别保护物种，并制定物种行动计划。
We argue the need to improve climate change forecasting for ecology, and importantly, how to relate long-term projections to conservation. As an example, we discuss the need for effective management of one species, the emperor penguin,Aptenodytes forsteri. This species is unique amongst birds in that its breeding habit is critically dependent upon seasonal fast ice. Here, we review its vulnerability to ongoing and projected climate change, given that sea ice is susceptible to changes in winds and temperatures. We consider published projections of future emperor penguin population status in response to changing environments. Furthermore, we evaluate the current IUCN Red List status for the species, and recommend that its status be changed to Vulnerable, based on different modelling projections of population decrease of ≥50% over the current century, and the specific traits of the species. We conclude that current conservation measures are inadequate to protect the species under future projected scenarios. Only a reduction in anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions will reduce threats to the emperor penguin from altered wind regimes, rising temperatures and melting sea ice; until such time, other conservation actions are necessary, including increased spatial protection at breeding sites and foraging locations. The designation of large-scale marine spatial protection across its range would benefit the species, particularly in areas that have a high probability of becoming future climate change refugia. We also recommend that the emperor penguin is listed by the Antarctic Treaty as an Antarctic Specially Protected Species, with development of a species Action Plan.
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影响因子：
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作者：
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