Multivariate space-time modelling of multiple air pollutants and their health effects accounting for exposure uncertainty.
Multivariate space-time modelling of multiple air pollutants and their health effects accounting for exposure uncertainty.
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DOI：
10.1002/sim.7570
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发表时间：
2018-03-30
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
Scott EM
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Huang G;Lee D;Scott EM
空气污染的长期健康影响通常使用时空生态区域单元研究来估计，但这种设计导致了以下统计挑战：（1）如何估计每个区域单元的空间代表性污染浓度;（2）在估计其健康影响时，如何考虑这些估计浓度的不确定性;（3）如何估计其健康影响。（3）如何同时估计多个相关污染物的联合效应。本文提出了一种新的两阶段贝叶斯分层模型来解决这三个挑战，并基于马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗模拟进行推理。第一阶段是多变量时空融合模型，用于从监测和模拟污染数据预测多种污染物的区域平均浓度。第二阶段是同时估计多个相关污染物的健康影响的时空模型，该模型考虑了估计的污染浓度的不确定性。这种新方法的动机是一项关于2007年至2011年期间苏格兰呼吸道住院患者中颗粒物和二氧化氮浓度影响的新研究，结果表明这两种污染物都表现出显著和独立的健康影响。
The long‐term health effects of air pollution are often estimated using a spatio‐temporal ecological areal unit study, but this design leads to the following statistical challenges: (1) how to estimate spatially representative pollution concentrations for each areal unit; (2) how to allow for the uncertainty in these estimated concentrations when estimating their health effects; and (3) how to simultaneously estimate the joint effects of multiple correlated pollutants. This article proposes a novel 2‐stage Bayesian hierarchical model for addressing these 3 challenges, with inference based on Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. The first stage is a multivariate spatio‐temporal fusion model for predicting areal level average concentrations of multiple pollutants from both monitored and modelled pollution data. The second stage is a spatio‐temporal model for estimating the health impact of multiple correlated pollutants simultaneously, which accounts for the uncertainty in the estimated pollution concentrations. The novel methodology is motivated by a new study of the impact of both particulate matter and nitrogen dioxide concentrations on respiratory hospital admissions in Scotland between 2007 and 2011, and the results suggest that both pollutants exhibit substantial and independent health effects.
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影响因子：
3.4
作者：
Pannullo F;Lee D;Waclawski E;Leyland AH
通讯作者：
Leyland AH
影响因子：
3.4
作者：
Rushworth, Alastair;Lee, Duncan;Mitchell, Richard
通讯作者：
Mitchell, Richard
DOI：
10.1111/rssa.12034
发表时间：
2014-06-01
影响因子：
2
作者：
Powell, Helen;Lee, Duncan
通讯作者：
Lee, Duncan
DOI：
10.1111/j.1467-9868.2012.01041.x
发表时间：
2013-01-01
影响因子：
5.8
作者：
Hughes, John;Haran, Murali
通讯作者：
Haran, Murali
在长期空气污染和健康研究中控制未衡量的混杂和空间未对准。
影响因子：
1.7
作者：
Lee D;Sarran C
通讯作者：
Sarran C