Predicting body mass index in early childhood using data from the first 1000 days.

Predicting body mass index in early childhood using data from the first 1000 days.
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DOI:
10.1038/s41598-023-35935-6
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发表时间:
2023-05-31
期刊:
影响因子:
4.6
通讯作者:
--
中科院分区:
综合性期刊3区
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--
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现有的预测儿童肥胖的努力很少包括产前和早期婴儿期的风险因素,尽管有证据表明,最初的1000天对于预防肥胖至关重要。在这项研究中,我们使用机器学习技术来了解儿童时期前1000天的因素对身体质量指数(BMI)值的影响。我们使用套索回归来确定除了历史体重、身高和BMI之外的13个与儿童肥胖症相关的特征。然后,我们建立了基于支持向量回归和五次交叉验证的预测模型,估计了三个时间段的体重指数:30-36(N = 4204)、36-42(N = 4130)和42-48(N = 2880)。我们的模型是使用每个时期80%的患者开发的。当在其余20%的患者上进行测试时,这些模型预测儿童的体重指数具有高精度(30-36个月的平均误差[标准差] = 为0.96[0.02],36-42个月的平均误差为0.98[0.03],42-48个月的平均误差为1.00[0.02]),并可用于支持关注早期肥胖预防的临床和公共卫生努力。
Few existing efforts to predict childhood obesity have included risk factors across the prenatal and early infancy periods, despite evidence that the first 1000 days is critical for obesity prevention. In this study, we employed machine learning techniques to understand the influence of factors in the first 1000 days on body mass index (BMI) values during childhood. We used LASSO regression to identify 13 features in addition to historical weight, height, and BMI that were relevant to childhood obesity. We then developed prediction models based on support vector regression with fivefold cross validation, estimating BMI for three time periods: 30–36 (N = 4204), 36–42 (N = 4130), and 42–48 (N = 2880) months. Our models were developed using 80% of the patients from each period. When tested on the remaining 20% of the patients, the models predicted children’s BMI with high accuracy (mean average error [standard deviation] = 0.96[0.02] at 30–36 months, 0.98 [0.03] at 36–42 months, and 1.00 [0.02] at 42–48 months) and can be used to support clinical and public health efforts focused on obesity prevention in early life.
婴儿在美国的出生体重:预想的压力性生活事件和用途的作用。
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