Biases in sea surface temperature and the annual cycle of Greater Horn of Africa rainfall in CMIP6
Biases in sea surface temperature and the annual cycle of Greater Horn of Africa rainfall in CMIP6
复制标题
CMIP6 中海面温度偏差和大非洲之角降雨年周期
DOI：
10.1002/joc.7456
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发表时间：
2021
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Lyon, Bradfield
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Lyon, Bradfield
大非洲之角大部分地区的气候降雨有一个双峰年周期，其特征是10月至12月的短降雨和3月至5月的长降雨。耦合模式相互比较项目（CMIP 3和CMIP 5）的前几代气候模式通常错误地反映了该地区的双峰降雨分布，在短降雨期间产生了太多的降雨，而在长降雨期间产生了太少的降雨。在这些模型中，长降雨的峰值通常也显示出相对于观测明显的1个月滞后。在这里，21个CMIP6模式，以适当地模拟观测到的，气候学的年周期的大角降雨的能力进行了检查，比较结果与CMIP5和CMIP3。由于以前的工作已经表明大角湾气候降雨偏差和模式偏差之间的联系，海表温度（SST），气候SST偏差的模式相关性进行了分析。对于多模式平均值，发现大角降雨和相关SST的早期偏差在CMIP6中持续存在。只检查每个CMIP组中表现最好的三个模型，就会发现CMIP 6模型的表现优于CMIP 3模型，而CMIP 5模型的改进结果好坏参半。对于表现最好的CMIP6模式，SST和850 hPa风偏置减少了印度洋相对于其他CMIP6模式检查。在CMIP 6模型性能和模型的水平分辨率之间未发现统计学显著关系。结合起来，这些结果表明，正确模拟SST的年周期，以成功地模拟观测到的降雨量的年周期在大角的重要性。
Climatological rainfall across much of the Greater Horn of Africa has a bimodal annual cycle characterized by the short rains from October to December and the long rains from March to May. Previous generations of climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5) generally misrepresented the bimodal rainfall distribution in this region by generating too much rainfall during the short rains and too little during the long rains. The peak of the long rains in these models also typically showed a pronounced 1‐month lag relative to observations. Here, the ability of 21 CMIP6 models to properly simulate the observed, climatological annual cycle of Greater Horn rainfall is examined, comparing results with CMIP5 and CMIP3. As previous work has shown a connection between Greater Horn climatological rainfall biases and model biases in sea surface temperatures (SSTs), pattern correlations of climatological SST biases are also analysed. For the multi‐model mean, it is found that the earlier biases in Greater Horn rainfall and associated SSTs persist in CMIP6. Examining only the three best performing models in each CMIP group reveals the CMIP6 models outperform those in CMIP3, with mixed results regarding improvements over CMIP5. For the best performing CMIP6 models, the SST and 850 hPa wind biases are reduced over the Indian Ocean relative to the other CMIP6 models examined. No statistically significant relationship was identified between CMIP6 model performance and the horizontal resolution of the model. Combined, these results indicate the importance of properly simulating the annual cycle of SSTs in order to successfully model the observed rainfall annual cycle in the Greater Horn.
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DOI：
10.1002/joc.2270
发表时间：
2012-03-01
期刊：
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
影响因子：
--
作者：
Anyah, Richard O.;Qiu, Weini
通讯作者：
Qiu, Weini
带有站点的气候危害红外降水 - 一种新的环境记录，用于监测极端。
影响因子：
9.8
作者：
Funk C;Peterson P;Landsfeld M;Pedreros D;Verdin J;Shukla S;Husak G;Rowland J;Harrison L;Hoell A;Michaelsen J
通讯作者：
Michaelsen J
影响因子：
4.9
作者：
Wenchang Yang;R. Seager;M. Cane;B. Lyon
通讯作者：
Wenchang Yang;R. Seager;M. Cane;B. Lyon
影响因子：
5.1
作者：
Eyring, Veronika;Bony, Sandrine;Taylor, Karl E.
通讯作者：
Taylor, Karl E.
解开东非的气候悖论
影响因子：
4.9
作者：
B. Lyon;N. Vigaud
通讯作者：
N. Vigaud